Matt Pottinger’s Boiling Moat is an insightful analysis of changing global power dynamics, focusing on the subtle, non-dynamic tactics that authoritarian regimes use to undermine democracies. Drawing on his experience as a journalist, U.S. Marine and deputy national security adviser, Pottinger Makes a compelling argument for how modern conflicts are no longer defined by traditional military engagements, but by an invisible, ongoing war waged across the cyber, economic, and information realms.
Below is a detailed breakdown of the key themes explored in this book.
“Boiling Moat” by Matt Pottinger (Image source: Hoover Inst Pr)
Introduction: A new era of conflict
Pottinger begins by describing fundamental changes in the way war is fought today. He describes the concept of a “boiling moat,” a metaphor for an ongoing, low-level form of conflict designed to weaken an opponent over time without triggering open war. The moat was never a raging fire, but rather slowly but steadily heated up, eroding the nation’s strength. This method of warfare avoids the high costs and risks of conventional warfare, making it particularly attractive to authoritarian regimes such as China and Russia. He noted that these tactics are often ignored by the public, which makes them particularly dangerous. Rather than resorting to the drama that marked traditional conflicts, modern powers use hidden and indirect methods to weaken democratic institutions and economies.
Chapter One: The Authoritarian Playbook
In the first part of the book, Pottinger explores the tactics used by authoritarian regimes. He believes that countries such as China and Russia are increasingly using non-military tools to weaken their opponents. These strategies include:
• cyber warfare: Pottinger details how authoritarian regimes use cyberattacks to gather intelligence, disrupt infrastructure and influence political outcomes. He cited famous examples of Russian interference in Western elections and Chinese theft of intellectual property.
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• Economic coercion: China, in particular, has developed economic influence through its dominance of global supply chains. Pottinger explains how Beijing uses trade, investment and debt to control smaller countries and pressure larger ones. The Belt and Road Initiative has been highlighted as a key tool to spread Chinese influence under the guise of economic partnerships.
• Information warfare: Authoritarian regimes use disinformation campaigns, state-run media, and social media manipulation to undermine trust in democratic institutions. Pottinger explains how these regimes have filled the information space with chaos and eroded public trust in institutions.
Chapter 2: China’s Grand Strategy
This chapter explores China’s long-term vision in more depth, with Pottinger arguing that China’s strategy is rooted in its ancient imperial practices but adapted to the modern world. The Chinese Communist Party has become adept at using soft power to expand its global influence without resorting to military confrontation. Pottinger highlighted several key aspects of China’s strategy:
• Technology and Surveillance: China is leveraging advanced technology, particularly artificial intelligence and big data, to strengthen its domestic controls and export its surveillance systems abroad. This digital authoritarianism allows China to exert influence not only over its own citizens, but also over other countries that adopt these systems.
• Diplomacy and the Debt Trap: Pottinger discusses China’s global diplomacy strategy, specifically how it uses economic aid and infrastructure projects to build dependence among developing countries. In doing so, China often achieves favorable political outcomes at the expense of democratic norms and sovereignty.
While China takes center stage in Pottinger’s narrative, Russia is also highlighted as the primary practitioner of the “boiling moat” strategy. Pottinger pointed to a number of Russian tactics, including:
• Hybrid warfare: Russia’s annexation of Crimea and intervention in eastern Ukraine are seen as textbook examples of hybrid warfare, in which military force is mixed with cyberattacks and disinformation to create confusion and delay an adversary’s response.
• Political interference: Pottinger details how Russia uses influence operations to sow discord within Western democracies. From supporting fringe political movements to hacking election systems, Russia has mastered the art of weakening its opponents without directly engaging them on the battlefield.
Chapter 4: The Weaknesses of Democracy
In this section, Pottinger turns his attention to the vulnerability of democracies in the face of this new form of warfare. He believes that democracies, especially the United States and Europe, have been slow to recognize and respond to these threats. Key challenges include:
• Overreliance on global supply chains: Western economies are increasingly dependent on global supply chains dominated by authoritarian regimes. Pottinger warned that this economic entanglement leaves democracies vulnerable to economic coercion, as seen when supply chains for critical goods are disrupted during the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Lack of cyber preparedness: Despite the increasing prevalence of cyberattacks, many democracies are unprepared to defend against or respond to these threats. Pottinger emphasized the need for stronger cybersecurity measures and a more coordinated effort to protect critical infrastructure.
• Erosion of trust in institutions: Authoritarian regimes exploit existing social divisions within democracies to fuel distrust of public institutions. Pottinger noted that disinformation campaigns are particularly effective at weakening social cohesion, making democratic societies more vulnerable to internal conflict.
Chapter 5: Call to Action
In the final section of “Boiling Moats,” Pottinger outlines a series of recommendations for democracies to respond to these threats. His suggestions include:
• Strengthening coalitions: Pottinger emphasizes the importance of democracies joining together to form stronger coalitions. He called for greater cooperation among Western countries and partnerships with emerging democracies in Asia, Africa and Latin America.
• Resilient supply chain: Pottinger urged democracies to reduce their reliance on autocratic control of supply chains by investing in domestic production and diversifying trade relationships.
• Cyber defense and offense: Pottinger advocates a more aggressive approach to cyber defense, including offensive measures to deter and punish cyberattacks. He also called for greater investment in technological innovation to ensure that democracies remain at the forefront of emerging technologies.
• Combating disinformation: Finally, Pottinger emphasized the need for democracies to develop stronger defenses against disinformation. He called for greater public education on media literacy, greater regulation of social media platforms, and greater accountability for those who spread false information.
Conclusion: The battle ahead
In his concluding remarks, Pottinger believed that the future of the global order will depend on how democratic countries respond to the “boiling moat” strategy. While authoritarian regimes may appear to be in the ascendant, he believes democracies have the ability to deal with these threats if they act decisively. The key to success is recognizing the nature of the threat, building resilience, and working together to uphold democratic values in an increasingly competitive world.
Book recommender: Other Jains new york
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