Virat Kohli went past 27,000 international runs in the Kanpur Test against Bangladesh. Can he get to Sachin Tendulkar‘s mark of 34,357 runs?
On Day 4 of the second Test between India and Bangladesh, Virat Kohli became the fourth batter to reach 27,000 runs in international cricket.
Kohli struck 47 runs in 35 balls before Shakib Al Hasan dismissed him in the second innings in Kanpur. The innings took Kohli to 8,918 runs in Test matches – and past the 27,000-run milestone across the three formats.At 594 innings, Kohli is the quickest to the milestone.
Only Sachin Tendulkar (34,357), Kumar Sangakkara (28,016), and Ricky Ponting (27,483) have more runs than Kohli (27,012) in international cricket.
While former Sri Lanka batter Sangakkara and Australia’s Ponting seem comfortably within reach, overtaking Tendulkar would need some serious effort and more than that, longevity to his career. As things stand, Kohli needs another 7,345 runs to overhaul Tendulkar.
Kohli has collected 13,906 runs in 295 ODIs, 8918 runs in Test matches and 4,188 runs in T20Is, before playing his last in the shortest format at the World Cup earlier in the year. This means, if Kohli were to surpass Tendulkar, he has only two formats to get there (unless there’s an unlikely u-turn at some point).
Can Kohli surpass Tendulkar – and if he does, when is it possible?
Kohli scored a huge 765 runs at an average of 95.62 during the 2023 ODI World Cup in India, which was a tournament record. However, the success in the 50-over format has been limited in the three matches he’s played.
In 2023 and 2024, so far, Kohli has scored 1435 runs from 30 matches. It averages to 68 runs per month which is lower than the 72 runs per month he had in his career.
In Test matches, his average of 47 over this time period is slightly lower than his career average of 48.73.
So, if looked largely purely from present numbers vs career numbers perspective, Kohli is doing worse off from his trend.
Based on the ICC Future Test Programme, India are scheduled to play 25 Test matches (26 if they qualify for the 2023-25 World Test Championship final) until April 2027. India are also pencilled in to play at least 27 ODIs in this time period.
Conservatively, let us take an average of 20 Test matches and 20 ODIs for Kohli in the next three years considering he has quit from T20Is which opens up room for the longer formats.
Since January 1, 2023, Kohli has scored 799 runs in 11 Test matches. That means he is mustering 72.63 runs per contest. If that remains the case for the next 20 matches, he will add 1,452 runs.
Meanwhile, in ODIs, he has scored 1,435 runs in 30 matches (47.8 runs/ODI). Across 20 matches, he is thus predicted to score 956 runs.
Combine the runs from Test and ODIs, and you get 2,408 runs. So, the right-hander is expected to score over 2,400 runs in the next 31 months if his numbers follow the same trajectory as the last 21 months.
It will tick his overall international runs tally nearer to 29,500. If the scoring rate and the schedule remains like for like, Kohli will reach nearer to 32,000 runs in the 31 months after that.
At that point, Kohli will be 42 years and getting closer to 32,000 runs if the estimations hold true. Yet, he would need another 2,357 runs to equal Tendulkar. So, Kohli would need to play until 43 or 44 years old to get to Tendulkar’s mark. The odds, however, of that look slim.
