However, the IPL league stage consists of 11 games. In 2024, there will be at least 2048 ways the matches can conclude. However, it is not known if they will qualify for the playoffs; MI and PBKS have already been ruled out.
KKR – Although in first place now with a thirty six percent (36%) probability to win this year’s tournament alone, KKR has only a one third chance of qualifying for playoffs by winning just one of last three games against their rivals. Nevertheless, worst case scenario could see them finish tie in third place while they are unsure whether to qualify for Playoffs or not. If they fail to win any more games, they could end up in a tie for third place with two other teams. Depending on how other games go, CSK and DC and LSG Net Run Rate would decide who goes forward. Yet still, this has a point 2 percent probability.
RR – Like KKR that also has thirty six percent (36%) chances of topping the table alone after round robin stages; RR also possesses about sixty three percent (62.5%), likelihood of being joint top on points or more at this stage though doubtful about making it into playoffs If they lose all their remaining games then depending on other results around them either CSK/DC/LSG may be equal third with them towards third place position.Given this however, it only has an eighty percent (0.8%) chance.
SRH- Ranked third currently SRH will most likely end up anywhere within top four with nearly ninety seven percent certainty based purely on points earned until now. However, when so many teams have poor records like those tying for first and second places we hope for above two%.
CSK- Even though CSK lost on Friday night they are still fourth in IPL table where their chances of finishing individually/jointly in top four are just above fifty plus percent. It is better for them to be level on points with one/three other teams and finish second. This only stands at 7%.
DC- Fifth-placed DC has no hope of winning the title not even sharing it. They are about fifty eight percent (58%) chances of making top four alone or together. The most optimistic situation would be a tie with another team for the second highest number of points at just below five percent.
LSG- LSG as well have around fifty eight percent (58%) opportunity per se in regards to individual/ joint entry into the top four.The same applies when they do no better than tie for second place with others, including DC among them. This will happen, but it’s under 5%.
The RCB are in seventh place with just over a 20% chance of making it to the top four. If everything goes well; they could end up tying for third place with two to five other teams, which is about 4.9%.
This win puts GT out of the bottom of the table but at less than 16% chances, individually or jointly, of making it to the top four. This means that GT’s best case scenario would be to tie for third place with three or more others, an opportunity that has less than a 5 percent chance.
PBKS- Their playoff run stops here. The possibility of even tying for fifth place is only 0.6%.
rice- MI also did not make it to the playoffs. They could at best tie with another team on fifth position and even this would have been a very low probability event of a mere 1.2%.
In short, KKR and RR are most likely going through while SRH may join them leaving CSK, LSG and DC fighting for fourth spot. Much still needs to be done for RCB and GT to be involved.
How do we calculate probabilities?
With eleven games remaining there are two thousand forty eight possible outcomes (2048). Each one will be examined along with their implications on overall standings. Then we shall determine what percentage of scenarios has Team “A” ending up in top four or taking first place in IPL as long as they can make it happen. To begin with, each game is assumed to be fifty-fifty proposition — which sounds logical given how this year’s IPL has been like any other season before and after this one. For instance, out of two thousand forty eight possibilities; individually or jointly GT only entered into the top four three hundred twenty times meaning such odds are fifteen point six per cent
