India’s aspirations of advancing to the semifinals of the ICC Women’s T20 World Cup 2024 have suffered an enormous setback after a crushing defeat by 58 runs to New Zealand in Dubai on Friday.
Having come into this tournament as one of the former group, India is in a somewhat more complicated path towards the knock out stages as net run rate also becomes important in tough Group A.
The consequence has put a huge cost on the side of India since one winner is chosen out of two particular semi-finalists per group. The two other teams through to the last four emerging from the remaining two groups have now nowhere to hide.
Their group who has former champions and three time defending champions Australia, a revival New Zealand, arch enemy Pakistan and Asia Cup winners Sri Lanka is tough in advance.
What India must do to qualify for semis
For the first time, India must be victorious in all the three remaining group matches which are against Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Australia, in order to have any functional chance of progress. Victory alone would not suffice progress but what kind of victory is also critical.
Considering the present NRR of -2.900 against new Zealand however puts them in a situation where they must consider winning big, especially if it comes down to a qualification race.
Defeat of Pakistan (October 6): India is expected to maintain reversals against Pakistan in a three-match series in autumn especially having dominated them in twelve out of fifteen games. India has a very good record against their peers. Glee Pakistan is coming from their opening match where they were able to dispatch Sri Lanka with ease. A match like this will get their confidence up as well as their net run rate.
Crucial clash against Sri Lanka (October 9): It is a bigger danger as Sri Lanka has beaten India in the Asia cup final already in July. India has never lost to Sri Lanka in the T20 world cups, and only once in the history overall tic will be considered unlucky, so the squad needs to target a win by a big margin to keep the hope of making to the semi finals.
The big test against Australia (October 13): Once every bowler/player has played five overs, the advancement is rewarded and the competition therefore climbs many more notches. No other team has executed execution like the slay of chicken which leads to India inception of the slog. Only one such test remains and that is against the Australians – a terror who has beaten India on 25 out of the 34 T20I encounters including winning 4 out of the 6 T20 World Cups they were played. They have to finish in that top two providing their account in those groups with the utmost African countries, where Indian champions will have to get rid of stiff competition.
Impact of other results
Indian team has to win all their remaining matches but even then their semi-final hopes will solely depend more on factors beyond their control. Other key group-stage results will play a pivotal role in determining quarter final qualification.
Australia vs New Zealand (October 8): A win over New Zealand by Australia will limit the chances for India if India can defeat both Pakistan and Sri Lanka but with bigger margins than before. If New Zealand win this tournament, the task for India becomes even more complex as New Zealand would have two competition-winners and only one of the other teams can have that.
Pakistan vs New Zealand (October 14): Eastern arm – South – India quite immoderately conditioned. If, however, Pakistan win against New Zealand, the picture may become a wonderful lily and a headache for all those votes will depend on net run rate. There is no way India would be able to sustain such a strategy without winning a few games first. Indian match strategy prior works focused mainly the South.
Challenges to the Net Run Rate
India’s NRR is presently at -2.900 meaning even three wins out of three matches may not guarantee India’s qualification to round two. The team will need to make use of the games against Pakistan and Sri Lanka – both of which can be won – and aim to do so with final margins large enough to improve their NRR. In the worst conceivable situation where more than two teams finish with the same points, NRR will be the basis for determining progression.
