World Test Championship: WTC Final qualification scenarios: How India can qualify after falling behind South Africa and Australia | Cricket News

NEW DELHI: The race to the ICC World Test Championship (WTC) Final has reached a thrilling stage, with South Africa surging to the top of the points table following a commanding 109-run victory over Sri Lanka in the second Test at St. George’s Park in Gqeberha.
The win not only secured a 2-0 series sweep but also elevated the Proteas to 63.33 percentage points, placing them narrowly ahead of Australia, who hold 60.71 percentage points. India are currently third with 57.29 percentage points, while Sri Lanka sit fourth at 45.45 percentage points.
South Africa’s triumph came on the heels of Australia’s brief stint at the top, thanks to their dominant 10-wicket victory over India in the pink-ball Test in Adelaide.

With 10 Tests left in the current WTC cycle, several teams remain in contention, though no side is guaranteed a spot yet in the final.
Here are scenarios for all the contenders for WTC FInal as the business end of the cycle begins:
1. SOUTH AFRICA
South Africa, leading the table, have two home matches against Pakistan remaining. Winning just one of these Tests would ensure their place in the final. Even a 1-1 series result would leave them at 61.11%, a tally only India or Australia could surpass. However, if South Africa draw both matches, their percentage would drop to 58.33%, allowing India to overtake them with a 3-2 series win in Australia or Australia to surpass them with two wins in Sri Lanka. If South Africa lose the series 0-1, they would need to rely on Australia winning no more than two of their remaining five Tests or India securing no more than one win and one draw from their series in Australia.
2. AUSTRALIA
Australia, currently second, has three home Tests against India and two away Tests in Sri Lanka. They need at least two wins against India to secure a place in the final. A 3-2 series win over India would ensure Australia’s spot even if they lose both matches in Sri Lanka. However, if Australia lose to India 2-3, they would need to win both Tests in Sri Lanka to surpass India or depend on South Africa dropping points against Pakistan.

3. INDIA
India, sitting third, have a challenging task with three away Tests against Australia. To guarantee a spot, they need two wins and a draw, which would elevate their percentage to 60.53%, securing at least second place behind South Africa. If India win the series 3-2, they would finish at 58.77%. However, a 2-3 series loss would drop them to 53.51%, leaving their fate dependent on South Africa losing both Tests and Australia underperforming in Sri Lanka.
4. SRI LANKA
Sri Lanka, with two home Tests against Australia remaining, have an outside chance of qualification. Winning both Tests would take them to 53.85%, but they would still rely on South Africa losing both matches and Australia beating India 2-1 with two draws to have a chance.
5. PAKISTAN
Pakistan, currently at 33.33%, remain in mathematical contention but face an uphill battle. Winning all four of their remaining matches would leave them at 52.38%, just short of South Africa’s 52.78% unless South Africa lose one Test and drop below them at 52.08%. They would also need other results to go their way, making their chances slim.

With England, New Zealand, Bangladesh, and the West Indies out of contention, the focus remains on South Africa, Australia, India, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan as the race intensifies. The upcoming clashes, especially India vs Australia and South Africa vs Pakistan, will be crucial in determining the finalists for the WTC Final.