Rian Gosling stars in Universal Pictures’ “The Fall Guys.”
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For the first time since 2009, there isn’t a Marvel movie at the box office to kick off the summer movie season — and it shows.
Since “Iron Man” hit theaters in 2008, Marvel Cinematic Universe movies have been rolling out during this lucrative moviegoing season, with only two movies debuting below $100 million — excluding pandemic years.
The headline movie for this year’s first summer weekend is generic “Fall Guys.” Despite strong marketing efforts and good reviews, the film failed to boost box office revenue during its opening last weekend. The film grossed just under $28 million during its domestic debut.
“The Fallout co-stars Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt, but lacking a well-known franchise brand and a niche storyline, it’s too narrow in scope to attract a large summer audience,” Eric Eric Handler, managing director of Roth MKM, wrote in a note to investors on Monday.
The misstep does not bode well for the summer box office, which was already down from $4.1 billion last year after two strikes in Hollywood halted production and clogged the pipeline for new movie releases.
Comscore’s Paul Dergarabedian said the result could cause summer 2024 box office to be as much as $800 million lower than in 2023, with knock-on effects throughout the year. After all, the summer season (which runs from the first weekend in May through Labor Day) typically accounts for 40% of annual domestic box office totals.
The limited and inconsistent availability of new releases means moviegoers aren’t seeing movie trailers and poster promotions at local theaters and may not be aware of what’s coming to the big screen. Additionally, this summer’s movie lineup is not as strong as in previous years, with fewer blockbusters and major series.
Only one superhero movie is scheduled to be released this summer – “Deadpool and Wolverine,” the first R-rated Disney Marvel movie, and that isn’t until the end of July.
Currently, analysts believe the summer movie season will top $3 billion in box office revenue, but just barely. Before the coronavirus outbreak, summer box office had consistently exceeded $4 billion. The last time ticket sales fell as low as $3 billion for a season was in 2000, according to Comscore.
“Even with the inevitable year-over-year decline in revenue, the summer of ’24 should be judged more by the quality and value of the moviegoing experience than the amount of box office cash in the drawer,” Dergarabedian said.
A lackluster summer
Handler pointed out that so far this season, box office is down 48% year-over-year. While he expects the May release to help bolster ticket sales, the box office “will need to see some big hits” to “gain some lost ground.”
“Right now, movie theater operators need a massive infusion of content,” Handler wrote. “Not only did content decline in the second quarter, it also lacked traction.”
The hottest movies of the summer are in theaters
May 9 – “War for the Planet of the Apes”
May 17 – “What If”
May 17—”Strangers: Chapter One”
May 24 – “Furiosa: The Mad Max Story”
May 24 – “Garfield The Movie”
June 7 — “Bad Boys: Ride or Die”
June 14 – “Brain Teasers 2”
June 21 – “Motorcycle Rider”
June 28 – “Quiet World: Day One”
July 3—Despicable Me 4
July 19 – “Tornado”
July 26 – “Deadpool and Wolverine”
August 9 – “Borderland”
August 16 – “Alien: Romulus”
August 23 – “The Crow”
For the remainder of May, Disney’s “War for the Planet of the Apes” is currently expected to gross between $55 million and $60 million in its domestic opening weekend. Paramount’s “IF” is valued at approximately $40 million. And Warner Bros. “Furiosa” is expected to gross between $40 million and $50 million.
However, these predictions pale in comparison to major releases from the same month last year. Universal Pictures’ “The Fast and Furious” debuted at $67 million, and Disney’s live-action “The Little Mermaid” debuted at $96 million.
It remains to be seen whether there will be any breakout hits this summer, such as last year’s Angel’s “Freedom,” which could boost the overall box office.
Strong completion
The goal for summer 2024 flights is to offer more family-friendly fares. A series of animated features from an established series that should keep parents and children occupied during the summer holidays and out of school.
Currently, Universal Pictures’ “Kung Fu Panda 4” is the second-highest domestic box office movie of 2024, with box office revenue of $188.4 million. Warner Bros. and Legendary Entertainment’s “Dune: Part II” is the highest-grossing domestic film so far this year, taking in $281.3 million.
There are some heavyweights coming up for the final stretch of the year.
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice will be released in early September, Joker: Folie a Deux will be released in October along with Venom: The Last Dance, and Gladiator II, Moana 2 and “Wicked.” Additionally, “Kraven the Hunter,” “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” and “Mufasa: The Lion King” will be released in December.
It’s worth noting that the first “Joker” grossed $335 million at the domestic box office in 2019. In 2016, “Moana” grossed $248.7 million, while the two previous “Sonic” movies grossed $146 million and $190 million during their theatrical run.
“Ultimately, the game is won in the theater, not on a spreadsheet,” Dergarabedian said.
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