Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw from the US presidential race has brought a lot of uncertainty in global affairs as Western leaders try to deal with the Ukraine and Gaza conflicts, a more assertive China, and the rise of far-right movements in Europe.
Throughout fifty years of his life spent in politics, Biden nurtured close associations with many foreign leaders which no other Democratic successor will be able to replicate. In response there was an avalanche of support and thanksgiving for what he had done.
The variety of foreign policy challenges that await the next president highlights how decisions made in Washington can have enormous repercussions globally.
This is just a sample list of some such challenges.
Israel-Hamas
Given Vice President Kamala Harris’ possible succession after Biden, Israelis are keen on understanding its implications amid Israel’s increased diplomatic isolation over its attacks against Hamas.
Biden’s “bad cop” who openly condemned Israel’s actions in Gaza amidst growing global criticism is said to be his Vice President Kamala Harris. She has been more vocal than her boss Joe Biden recently calling for a ceasefire and condemning the invasion of Rafah, while expressing alarm at civilian deaths within Gaza strip.
Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli consul general in New York City stated: “With Biden leaving, Israel has lost perhaps the last Zionist president. A new Democratic candidate will upend the dynamic.”
This stems from his unflinching support for the state as a senator during October 7 attack by Hamas till now as vice president and then head of state. On Monday Israeli defence minister Yoav Gallant thanked him for having provided “unwavering support” throughout this renewed conflict situation.
Israeli President Isaac Herzog called him a “symbol of the unbreakable bond between our two peoples,” “a true ally of the Jewish people.” However there was no immediate response from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a former ally of ex-President Donald Trump, who was at odds with Biden during the Israel-Hamas war.
Russa-Ukraine
Irrespective of slow delivery of US assistance and restrictions on Western weapons which have increased frustrations in Ukraine and Europe, any Democratic candidate is expected to maintain Biden’s strong military support for Ukraine.
Europeans are readying themselves for Ukraine to be their responsibility number one as Sudha David-Wilp (German Marshall Fund) puts it. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has thanked Biden for his decision to quit and help prevent Russia from occupying his country.
Trump has pledged that if elected he will end Russia’s war on Ukraine in twenty-four hours a day thereby raising concerns in Ukraine that Russian may keep its occupied territories. Ohio Senator JD Vance who is opposed to American aid to Ukraine is Trump’s vice presidential nominee.
Moscow announced through Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov that regardless of the outcome of the US race, it would not stop its actions in Ukraine.
China
Both Biden and Trump have boasted about having what it takes to confront China’s military and economic muscle. While Biden imposed tariffs on Chinese electric cars, Trump said he had prepared 60% tariff for all Chinese goods.
Trump’s “America First” policy strained US-China relations, and there were also disagreements on trade, technology, and security under Biden. China has been cautious in its response to the American election. In other words, Xinhua lessened the impact of Biden’s decision while Hu Xijin, Global Times editor did not see much change in US-China relations if Biden was elected as he said that Trump supporters and those who opposed him were divided.
Iran
This has increased instability within the Middle East through Iran’s proxies participation in Israel-Hamas war. Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis have recently launched an attack on Tel Aviv which led to Israeli retaliation upon Yemen. As a result of the ongoing tensions between Hezbollah of Lebanon and Israeli military may be subject to escalation into a larger conflict scenario. In this protracted struggle against Israel supported by Iran, Hamas causes many casualties and displacements within Gaza.
The U.S along with its allies accused Iran for expanding its nuclear program up to near weapons-grade levels with uranium enrichment gathering momentum at that level. However, Biden tried to change track but kept sanctions and failed to renegotiate the agreement after Trump withdrew from it in 2018.
His death due to helicopter crash allowed reformist Masoud Pezeshkian to become president following four years hard-line Iranian leader Ebrahim Raisi died abruptly. Thus far he has focused on opening up Iran while staying firm against America where peace is concerned.
Europe and Nato
Many Europeans rejoiced over Trump leaving due to his EU criticism as well as NATO hostility. Conversely, Biden’s inclination came out clearly when he opted out during his campaign for closer cooperation with Europe’s leaders. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer expressed respect for Biden’s choice whereas Irish Prime Minister Simon Harris gave a warm welcome.
The next United States Presidential elections will question whether Nato can support Ukraine or counterbalance authoritarian states. Jeremy Shapiro of the European Council on Foreign Relations highlighted mixed relief and anxiety among Europeans and raised general confusion over Biden’s decision.
