China is vehemently pushing for global acceptance of a ‘no first use’ (NFU) atomic program, despite its own lightning-fast nuclear arms buildup. Financial Times reports that the purpose behind this proposal is to counter criticisms of China’s growing military capabilities and be seen as having a moral high ground in worldwide armament control discussions.
Proposal and criticism
At the UN Security Council in Geneva, China suggested either a treaty or declaration which all permanent members would have to adhere to. It means that no country shall use nuclear weapons unless attacked by another country with such weapons. Recently, China has also criticized America for nuclear deterrence strategies, claiming that Washington has violated Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) through its deployments of nuclear sharing arrangements and extended deterrence guarantees to allies.
Rapid nuclear build-up
Many observers see Beijing’s push for NFU as an attempt to divert attention from its own massive nuclear expansion. According to Pentagon data, China’s stockpile will go beyond 1000 warheads by 2030 – a sharp increase from current figures. For example, missile silos are being built by it and increasing its fleet of submarines capable of carrying nukes thereby improving the chances it can launch surprise attacks.
International skepticism and global reactions
Many countries including US allies have however expressed doubts about China’s NFU initiative. The US questions how genuine this move is considering that there seems to be rapid & secret accumulation of arms on Beijing side? Speaking for the State Department spokesperson said that china was wrong in trying to distract people from their refusal to engage in any meaningful discussion related with arms control.
Lyle Morris at Asia society policy institute explains why US may not back China’s proposal with the need for flexible deterrent options. Also, UK and France see retaining ability of using those bombs as critical given their relatively smaller conventional forces when compared to Russia.
Russia has cautiously stated that any agreement on NFU should take into account a wider range of military and strategic considerations. Moscow’s doctrine allows for use of nuclear weapons first in situations where the state’s security is at serious risk, recent statements seem to hint on possible nuclear threats in Ukraine.
China, however, has found resonance among many countries that fear nuclear threats from Russia and North Korea over NFU. David Santoro of the Pacific Forum argued that as global attention remains focused on Russia and North Korea, China’s diplomatic efforts are bearing fruit enabling it to increase its arsenal with less resistance or controversy as the Financial Times can confirm.
