China is apparently distanced as Russia and North Korea build a new defense pact, which raises concerns about the balance of power among these three authoritarian states. A little distance has left China in a difficult position with this development that was mark by an agreement between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, China’s desires to keep peace on the Korean Peninsula and counterbalance against the American influence make its response complicated.
The said treaty entails a defensive assistance obligation between North Korea and Russia in case of attack against either party but China has remained silent on it so far. Instead, it re-emphasized its commitment to peacefulness, stability in Korean peninsula as well as political settlement of North-South gap. The experts say this reserved reaction might imply Chinese policymakers are unsure about what to do next.
Victor Cha, senior vice president for Asia and Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies notes that; “The Chinese response has been ‘very weak.” He elaborated: “Every option is a bad option,” perhaps implying internal divisions or incapability to analyze properly.
Some voices in China may see Russia-North Korea alignment as being able to check US over-dominance. However, they also feel uneasy according to him; “There is also a great deal of discomfort”. It values having control over northern neighbor, dreads rise of destabilizing nuclear power close by itself and fears spillover from the European conflict into Asia. By not voicing these concerns openly, China hopes to avoid driving Kim Jong Un closer to Vladimir Putin.
“They don’t want to push Kim Jong Un further into the arms of Vladimir Putin”, Victor Cha added.
“The pact between Russia and North Korea ‘should be of concern to any country that believes that the UN Security Council resolutions ought to be abid by,” said John Kirby, White House national security spokesman. In order for Security Council sanctions against North Korea so that it halts nuclear weapon development, Kirby said “It should be of concern to anybody who thinks that supporting the people of Ukraine is an important thing to do. And we would think that that concern would be share by the People’s Republic of China.
There might also be a worry for China if Russia provides advanced technology for North Korea’s weapons program.
The political and military landscape in East Asia has grown so complex with meeting between Putin and Kim as another event where china’s presence has significantly risen over the past decades. This leads to concerns in the US about possible alliances between China, Russia, North Korea, Iran among others against international order led by USA. However, Beijing disagrees with this assertion.
China’s intention is not to build a triple alliance with North Korea and Russia, says Sun Yun, the director of China Program at Stimson Center. She adds that “…Beijing doesn’t want to form a three-way alliance with North Korea and Russia because it ‘needs to keep its options open.”
New Cold War could be on its way if a coalition is form that Beijing seems to avoid. However, such an alliance would counteract China’s goals of maintaining good relations with Europe as well as improving ties with Japan and South Korea. This was supported by Sun who commented that “The rapprochement between North Korea and Moscow ‘opens up possibilities and potentials of uncertainty, but based on what has happened so far, I don’t think that China’s national interests have been undercut by this.”
Danny Russel, the former top American diplomat for Asia during Obama’s era believes that closer ties between Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin could dilute Beijing’s influence and make it “the biggest loser.”
