Araria will contest the third phase of Lok Sabha elections on May 7 and has been identified by the NITI Aayog as having the highest level of poverty in Bihar. According to the multidimensional poverty scale developed by a public sector think tank, at least 52.07% of the population is in poverty.
Araria is one of the 40 Lok Sabha constituencies in Bihar and consists of six parliamentary districts: Araria (Congress), Narpatganj (BJP), Forbesganj (BJP) Party), Raniganj (JD-U), Jokihat (RJD/AIMIM) and Sikh (BJP). The party is currently represented by Pradeep Kumar Singh of the Bharatiya Janata Party, who is also the party’s candidate this time. He will face Shahnawaz Alam, fielded by the RJD of the opposition India Bloc.
BJP maintains healthy lead
The local sentiment in Araria, a Congress stronghold that has alternated between the RJP and RJP since 1998, is positive for the BJP. This time, the BJP has placed its trust in sitting MP Pradeep Kumar Singh, who defeated RJD’s Sarfaraz Alam by 1.37 lakh votes in the 2019 general elections. Sarfaraz Alam ).
Over the past five years, the BJP has consolidated its position in Araria. It now has MLAs in three of the six parliamentary divisions, while Congress, JD(U) and RJD have MLAs in one division each.
The decisive factor in almost all elections here is the Muslim-Yadav combination. Muslims and Yadavs together account for about 59% of the electorate. But, if information on the ground is to be believed, the Yadavs will vote for the BJP in large numbers mainly because they realize that this is a national election and they vote for a party to form the government at the Centre.
These women appear to be emerging as some of the biggest supporters of the BJP in the constituency. They point out that their sense of security has increased under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, allowing them to move around without fear of anti-social or criminal elements.
The BJP is moving forward with its development plans, coupled with Hindu trappings, to decide its fate in Araria. The construction of the Ram Janmabhoomi Mandir is a “success story” that the BJP has repeatedly mentioned.
The BJP’s vote share has increased in Araria since 2014. Cut to the 2018 by-election results, the BJP’s vote share rose to over 43%, roughly equivalent to 447,000 votes. However, the BJP lost to RJD’s Sarfaraz Alam, who polled around 5.09 lakh votes. A year later, in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the PPP achieved a breakthrough in Araria, defeating Alam by 1.37 lakh votes. The saffron party’s vote share in the last election doubled to about 52% compared to 2014. Therefore, its rise has been smooth and natural.
However, some within the BJP were not particularly impressed with the choice of candidates. Four-time MP Janardan Yadav directly accused the party of neglect. He has been associated with the BJP way back when Araria was even a constituency. So, he is definitely an old horse. Separately, many senior regional leaders of the BJP have begun to be outspoken about the party’s organizational structure.
RJD replaces candidate but faces tough task
RJD took a gamble with Araria this time and denied the ticket to Sarfaraz Alam, who was expected to bat like he did in 2014, 2018 and 2019. Sarfaraz and Shahnawaz are both sons of former union minister Taslimuddin, the towering leader of the RJD. After his death, however, the family’s influence and control over the electorate declined. For the RJD, this election will in many ways determine whether it remains a relevant political unit in Araria.
Importantly, the RJD can only rely on the Muslim-Yadav caste combination. Although the actual situation shows that this caste combination can still hold its own in the assembly elections, the “pro-BJP” sentiment among the public is difficult to ignore.
The RJD is being hit by internal struggles. A large group of Sarfaraz Alam’s supporters are angry that the party did not allow him to be its candidate. After his ticket was cancelled, he held a meeting with supporters in which he burst into tears, a video of which went viral. Although he is not contesting as an independent, he has been outspoken about his brother Shahnawaz.
The animosity between Sarfaraz and Shahnawaz is not new. Earlier, Sarfaraz emerged as the RJD candidate for the 2020 Jokihat assembly elections after the party canceled the ticket of sitting MLA Shahnawaz. Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM then came to the rescue and allowed him to contest the elections under its symbol. Owaisi’s party used Shahnawaz to promote him heavily across the Seemanchal region. The impact was felt among Muslim voters, especially the Kulhaiya community. Shahnawaz won the election with over 59,000 votes, while his brother Sarfaraz came second with about 52,000 votes.
The RJD seems to believe that the Muslim voters that Shahnawaz Alam has, especially since he was promoted by AIMIM, will be a plus point for him in Araria. However, in reality, the wind of counter-polarization among Hindus is also blowing.
Moreover, the RJD now believes that Sarfaraz’s victory over the BJP in the 2018 by-polls was largely due to sympathy votes after his father’s death. Meanwhile, in a bid to defy the RJD, the ultra-backward outfit’s state vice-president Dr Shatrughan Kumar Suman has entered the fray as an independent candidate. He is considered to have a strong hold on voters from his caste, which numbers about 300,000 in the region.
In terms of campaign rhetoric, the RJD focused on issues such as unemployment, immigration, rising prices, the overall situation in Bihar, and the threat of annual flooding in the Mahananda River and its tributaries. Overall, the party faces challenges in trying to wrest Araria from the BJP.
Here are the key factors at play in the Araria Lok Sabha constituency:
- Modi factor: The biggest factor determining Araria’s victory will be the “Modi factor”. Prime Minister Modi is widely believed to have achieved development goals, albeit not to the standards. Schemes to provide pukka houses, electricity, LPG connections, free ration, health insurance and other basic amenities are galvanizing voters’ support for the BJP.
- unemployment: Undeniably, unemployment may be the biggest concern for those on the fence or those supporting opposition parties. Young people, who are most affected by unemployment, do appear to be dissatisfied with government at both state and central levels. Unemployment also leads to migration, particularly in Bihar, where youth migrate to other states and metropolitan areas. This not only affected the state’s demographics, especially in Araria, but also caused strong resentment among those who believed unemployment was a big problem.
- flood: Araria has to face floods every year during the monsoon as incessant rains, especially in Nepal, cause the water levels of the Mahananda and its associated rivers to rise. This has wreaked havoc on thousands of people, with farmers being the worst hit. In July 2010, Nitish Kumar launched the Mahananda River Basin Project to strengthen embankments along the river at a cost of Rs 1.49 billion. He said the initiative would solve the problem of flooding. But 14 years later, the problem still has not been solved.
- Fertilizer shortage: Farmers in Araria continue to complain about fertilizer shortages, a problem that will peak between 2022 and 2023. When the issue came into focus, there were accusations that shopkeepers were selling fertilizers at double or triple the market price.
- Religious polarization: Singh being Shahnawaz is bound to polarize the electorate along religious lines. While the BJP is optimistic about Ram Mandir’s inauguration and how it will galvanize Hindu opinions in its favour, the BJP is mainly counting on its tried-and-true Muslim-Yadav combination. The Yadavs are expected to vote for the BJP, marking another disruption in Bihar’s complex caste-dominated politics.
Voter Demographics
Total number of voters: 20,14,402
Male: 10,47,698
Female: 9,66,610
SC: 2,61,078 (13.7%)
ST: 26,680 (1.4%)
Rural: ~17,89,435 (93.9%)
Cities: ~1,16,247 (6.1%)
Voter turnout for 2019 poll: 64.8%
Check out the 2024 Lok Sabha election third phase schedule, main candidates and constituencies: news18 website.
