The IPL playoff race is extremely heated with 13 fixtures remaining in the league stages of the IPL 2024. KKR and RR have stood out while CSK, SRH, LSG, and DC are fighting for the rest. RCB, PBKS, and GT don’t have much of a chance. The playoffs will be KKR and RR plus two from CSK, SRH, LSG and DC in which the first two are likely to qualify more easily than others do. A miracle would be needed for any other team to get into that mix.
With 13 games left in IPL 2024 league stage of IPL there are already nearly 8,200 possible combinations of match results. No one knows yet who will reach the playoffs but there’s one team (MI) that cannot anymore qualify as per this article . We look at each team’s chances
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KKR – The current front-runners have only one win required to finish on top alone when they can still make it with just a third victory in their last three matches (36% probability).
They however possess impressive odds to tie points table leaders at the end of tournament which stands at an impressive 62.5%, although they aren’t guaranteed a playoff spot by any means If they lose all games left then potentially depending on how other games go down they could tie fourth with either DC or LSG if things fall within favorable range. However this has only a 0.2% likelihood
RR – Like KKR ,even though their probability stands at around 36%, they may end up being solely leading teams by tallying equal points as well as be almost certain about taking part in playoffs soon enough if things continue going their way during next few days or so Still however their place in final four remains uncertain because anything can happen before it is over due to some unforeseen circumstances that might alter everything within no time at all such as losing all subsequent fixtures thereby resulting in being tied 4th on the table alongside LSG or DC contingent upon what occurs elsewhere Nonetheless, there’s only about a 0.4% chance of this occurring.
SRH – SRH went above LSG into 3rd spot with their hammering of them on Wednesday and now their chances of making it to the top four alone or together have gone up from 72% to just under 94%. However their best performance that they can achieve is equal first place together with one, two or three other teams (slightly below 5% probability).
CSK – So far CSK have just over 73% chances of qualifying for the play-offs as one of the four teams either singly or jointly by occupying third position currently like SRH who can also at best be termed as joint group leaders along with one, two or three others whatsoever (not more than approximately 4%).
DC – If they perform wonderfully in the remaining matches, no matter what happens between now and 26th September as some things can be salvaged within a twinkle of an eye to change all of that, because even though by far they will not win the league or even finish level on points with any other side above them at mid-table after all will have been said and done, since there cannot be such situation where they would make playoffs if everything goes according to plan however inexplicably falling behind both LSG and DC due to not winning any game from this point forward which will make them tie at number four based on how certain others fare. Nonetheless, luckiest possible scenario is shared second place with just over 6.25%.
LSG – However, despite their recent thrashing, LSG is still sixth. Conversely, their chances dropped significantly from more than seventy percent to just under fifty percentage when we look at their chances of making it into the top four like D.C., who might also at best share a place in second with one team out of one two or three (which has odds little better than 4%).
RCB- The seventh placed RCB will consider itself fortunate if they manage to tie for third or fourth places but that only stands slightly above 8%.
PBKS- Punjab as well can afford nothing less than tied third or fourth which comes to barely above 6% probability.
GT – On the bottom end of the league table are the champions who must rely on a miracle chance hence their odds are below eight percentages.
MI- In ninth position presently, MI cannot reach the playoffs. None of these combinations would allow them to get up as high as fifth on points in out of 8192 possibilities.
Otherwise KKR and RR would definitely make it through.
For this merger has to occur between two groups; CSK/SRH plus LSG/DC respectively thus creating better odds for each of them.
How do we determine probabilities?
There remain still 8,192 different match outcomes in the next thirteen matches. Each outcome has its implications for final rankings. So, after that we calculate what percentage of all those result combinations would give a team “A” chances to finish in top four or first spot etcetera. This is based on the assumption that every match outcome is random (as a coin toss), which is not false considering how IPL matches were played this year and previous years as well. For example, RR finishes highest alone or collectively in 5120 out of the 8192 instances thus representing either singly or jointly tops up among all such possibilities by 62.5%.
