Unlike the presidential nature of the previous two elections – where Prime Minister Modi’s image and national issues took center stage – this time local factors and candidates appear to be making a comeback.
“I vote for SP Singh Baghel (bjp candidate) rather than the party,” said Ram Hari Pradhan from Parbatpur village near Khandauli in Agra, a region famous for its potatoes. Like most others in the region, Pradhan continued to use the name, although he no longer held a Panchayat position. “Had Baghel not been the candidate, I probably wouldn’t have voted for the BJP,” he added, citing his personal relationship with the man who started his career with the Samajwadi Party, then switched to the BJP and finally to the BJP Candidate relationships.
“This time, the Jat vote is likely to be split as young people are angry about the Agnivir scheme. Look at the unemployment rate and inflation. The government has not delivered on many promises. In the last two elections, the Jat vote People voted overwhelmingly for the BJP, said Pradhan, a war veteran who now works as a potato farmer and has two sons serving in the army. “In my village, more than 50 families are retired or serving in the army. “The youth are heartbroken because of Agnivir and the Jatavs of my village may still vote for the SP candidate, but by a lower margin,” he added.
“Earlier, at this time of the day, you would see many boys running on this road (recruitment training). They have lost interest now,” added Ravindra Kumar Baghel of Ujari Jat village. Baghel is a community of shepherds whose traditional job is to raise goats and sheep. “SP Singh Baghel is the highest leader of the community and our votes are unanimously given to him,” he added.
Chaman Usmani, a street vendor in Tedi Bagiya, Agra, said the Muslim votes will go to the Indian community. The area has many posters of Ambedkar and has a large Jatav population. “Jatav votes are divided this time,” said Pappu, a fruit seller in Tedi Bagiya. “The community is still assessing which candidate will defeat the BJP and will vote accordingly,” he added. “This time both SP and BSP candidates are Jatavs and the votes will be split.” Despite the large numbers of Dalits , but the Socialist Party of the Philippines never won this parliamentary seat.
Before delimitation, Raj Babbar had won the Agra seat from the Samajwadi Party in 2004 and 2009. In the hands of the BJP, this gives the saffron party an advantage. “This time, both the BSP and SP are vying for this seat,” said Hari Bhai, former councilor of Agra Nagar Nigam (municipal corporation) and BSP member. “Some Jatav votes may go to SP because of the candidate’s image,” he added.
Neighboring Hathras is considered a saffron stronghold and the party has lost only once since 1991, in 2009. It is also the hometown of satirist Kaka Khathrasi. “The BJP appears to have an advantage in this seat. Although the enthusiasm of its cadres is significantly lower, the saffron party will still get by due to the weaker opposition, but its advantage may be even lower,” a local digital source said said Raj Deep Tomar, head of the news platform.
Tomar said the RLD alliance prevented the Jats from completely breaking away from the BJP. “However, there are divisions in the community – the older generation will vote for the BJP, while the younger generation is unhappy with Agnivir and may lean towards the BJP,” he added.
Tomar claimed that people in the region are moving away from mainstream TV news channels as they find it difficult to highlight local issues. “People are tired of big channels spreading repetitive stories. Drinking water is a big problem in the area around Hasayan block on Junction-Sikandra Rao Road. It is difficult to get reported.
“Even a lamppost can win the Hathras election on a BJP ticket,” said Sanjeev Kumar, a farmer and transport worker in Bahanpur village. Kumar is Sengar (Rajput) caste, never voted for other parties. “There are more than 80 Sengar villages on this road, and they all voted for the BJP,” said Mohan Murari of Nagla Tanja village. Om Vir Singh of Sathiya village also expressed similar thoughts. “I voted for the BJP, not Modi,” Kumar added. “The policies of this government favor the super rich, but people don’t understand that.” When asked about his sources, Kumar Said: “I watched it on YouTube. I haven’t watched TV in over a year.
During the first phase on April 19, Baghpat also reflected similar sentiments and many RLD voter had said they voted for the NDA because of RLD and were unhappy with many government policies, including the Agniveer scheme.
Poll statistics often don’t tell the whole story. But in 2014 and 2019, when the Modi wave took hold in the region, there were big jumps in poll percentages. This time, in the first two phases in Uttar Pradesh, polls fell in every constituency compared to 2019 – from 11.7 percentage points in Mathura to 2.9 percentage points in Nagina (see chart) . This, and the different voices on the ground, suggest that the election was uneventful.
