While millions of Americans will live and work under the next president, the winner will likely be determined by just a few thousand voters in a handful of fiercely contested seven battleground states. Pennsylvania has emerged as the most critical player among them.
The US election system, under the Electoral College, doesn’t decide the presidency by popular vote. Instead, each state allocates electoral votes largely based on population, creating a pathway where a candidate can secure the presidency even without winning the overall national vote. This is exactly how former President Donald Trump clinched the White House in 2016, setting a historical precedent that reverberates into this year’s fiercely divided contest against vice president Kamala Harris.
Why is Pennsylvania so important
With Pennsylvania holding a commanding 19 electoral votes, both campaigns view it as the key to their victory. If Harris fails to secure Pennsylvania, her path becomes substantially steeper, forcing her to look for wins in traditionally Republican-leaning states like North Carolina or Georgia. Trump faces a similar scenario: if he loses Pennsylvania, he would need to count on victories in states like Wisconsin or Michigan, which have rarely swung Republican in recent decades, save for his unexpected success there in 2016.
Reflecting this intense focus, the majority of campaign strategies, ad dollars, and personal visits have converged on the seven pivotal battlegrounds. Pennsylvania alone has witnessed over $279 million in broadcast ads by early October, towering over the next highest state, Michigan, by more than $75 million. Both Harris and Trump have consistently centered their efforts here, hoping to reach those elusive undecided voters.
Trump’s win in North Carolina
Trump’s recent win in North Carolina, which granted him the state’s 16 electoral votes, showcased the stakes. Although Democrats mounted a determined effort to sway the state through rallies, advertising, and association with controversial gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson, their bid ultimately fell short.
North Carolina’s tilt toward Trump has fortified his chances, but Pennsylvania remains the “tipping point” that could determine if his comeback campaign completes its return to the Oval Office or if Harris makes history as the first female president of the United States.
