Why is there a drop in school enrolments? | Explained

Students go for school during a cold morning in Srinagar on November 20, 2024.
| Photo Credit: IMRAN NISSAR

The story so far: The total enrolment of students in schools across India studying from grade 1-12, dropped by over a crore in 2023-24 as compared to 2018-19. After a gap of two years, the Ministry of Education (MoE) released the Unified District Information System for Education Plus (UDISE+) for 2022-23, 2023-24 on December 30, 2024.

What do the figures say?

Since 2012-13, when the MoE started maintaining UDISE+ data, it was believed that the total number of students studying in India were 26.3 crore. Till November 22, 2022 when the 2021-22 data was released, the number hovered around 26 crore, until last month, when the 2022-23 data reflected enrolment at 25.18 crore, which has further fallen to 24.8 crore in 2023-24 (a drop of 6% or 1.22 crore students) as compared to earlier years.

How did such a drop happen?

MoE officials in the UDISE+ reports have given a disclaimer that the UDISE+ reports of 2022-23 and 2023-24 are not strictly comparable to previous years reports because of a change in the ‘methodology,’ of data collection. However, former professor and HOD, Department of Educational Management Information System at Delhi-based NIEPA, Arun Mehta, said that the UDISE+ reports are silent on the sharp dip in total enrolment of students, and the dip in government schools. “The reports do not explain the reasons behind the dip. Only change in methodology of data collection is not reason enough,” said Prof. Mehta, who has worked on UDISE reports for 15 years.

What is the change in methodology?

While the MoE claims that the exercise of individual data collection from each student, which includes their Aadhaar number, was implemented from 2022-23, Prof. Mehta said that a similar exercise was initiated in 2016-17 and went on for a year. “We had anticipated even back then that there was no way of verifying data that was sent by schools regarding the number of students studying in their facilities, and so for one year NIEPA had attempted to collect individual student data with consent from the MoE. However, over subsequent years this exercise was discontinued and restarted only in 2022-23.”

Prof. Mehta explains that the enrolment decline since 2022-23 can be attributed to the elimination of duplicate enrolments (of students changing schools, but their records being maintained at two or more places), inflated enrolment figures and so on. “The new data collection system suggests that previous enrolment figures were overestimated by 5-6%. So what happened to these students who no longer reflect in UDISE data? Were they previously included for funding or incentive purpose like scholarships, free meals, text books and cash benefits? If so much how much funding was allocated to these students and was it effectively utilised?,” he asks.

For instance, in 2022-23, ₹32,515 crore (actual) was incurred under the Samagra Shiksha scheme, during the time when enrolment dropped (the latest figure reveals). In the current financial year of 2024-25, the allocation under the scheme is higher at ₹37,010 crore.

How comparable is UDISE+ data of last years with 2022-23, 2023-24 data?

While the MoE cautions that UDISE 2022-23 and 2023-24 data is not comparable with previous years, upon reviewing the UDISE+ 2022-23 report, Prof. Mehta noted that efficiency indicators like dropout, transition, and retention rates of students were computed depending on UDISE+ 2021-22 data. “Despite differences in data collection methodology, indicators, rates, and ratios remain comparable as this reflects the situation at a specific point of time, regardless of the methodology used,” he says. Even after revamped data collection methods were put in place, there has been a decline in the enrolment of students between 2022-23 and 2023-24 by 37 lakh. “The UDISE+ report is silent on this steep decline, nor is there an explanation for declining number of schools covered under UDISE+; whether this decline of schools is due to merging or closing down of schools is not clear,” Prof. Mehta says. There is also a stark decrease in the number of schools covered under UDISE+. There was a drop in the number of schools covered — from 15, 58, 903 (2017-18) to 14,71,891 (2023-24), a decline of 87,012 schools. Most of these schools are government-run, with 76,883 lesser schools recorded in the latest 2023-24 data. “MoE must furnish reasons for the decline of schools. Was this due to the shutting down and merger of schools? and while shutting down schools, were the Right to Education norms of having one primary school within a kilometre followed?,” Prof. Mehta said.

Which States are the most affected?

Jammu and Kashmir experienced the most decline in total schools, with a decline of 4,509 schools, while in Assam 4,229 schools reduced, and in Uttar Pradesh 2,967. Other affected States are Madhya Pradesh (2,170) and Maharashtra (1,368). “With the shutting down of schools, parents seek re-admission of their children to another nearby school. It is not an automatic transfer. Students drop out during this process, where parents are not comfortable seeking re-admission because of longer distances,” said Prof. Mehta.