Wayanad bypoll: Priyanka Gandhi’s 5-lakh victory target faces test after low voter turnout

Congress general secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra speaks at a public meeting in Wayanad, Kerala, during campaigning for the bypoll.
| Photo Credit: ANI

After the low voter turnout in the Wayanad Lok Sabha bypoll on Wednesday (November 13, 2024), Congress leaders are keeping their fingers crossed about the outcome, especially when they have targeted to secure a victory margin of over 5 lakh votes for Congress candidate Priyanka Gandhi Vadra in the seat vacated by her brother and Leader of the Opposition in Lok Sabha, Rahul Gandhi, five months ago to retain his second constituency, Rae Bareli.

The voter turnout dropped to 64.72%, a 9.15 percentage point decrease from the previous election. This marks the lowest turnout in the constituency since its formation in 2009. In the 2019 election, when Mr. Gandhi contested, the constituency saw a higher turnout of 80.37% and his victory margin was 4.31 lakh votes. 

Although Congress leaders are confident of Ms. Vadra romping home in her maiden electoral battle, they are uncertain of her surpassing Mr. Rahul’s victory margin of 3.64 lakh in the April 2024 General Elections.

Campaign managers of the coalition did not expect the huge dip in the voting percentage despite the electioneering blitzkrieg led by national and State Congress leaders. A phalanx of stars, including Mr. Gandhi, AICC general secretaries K.C. Venugopal and Deepa Dasmunshi and Karnataka Deputy Chief Minister D.K. Shivakumar, campaigned for Ms. Vadra.

Her mother Sonia Gandhi, Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Telangana Chief Minister A. Revanth Reddy too turned up when she submitted her nomination papers. She also actively engaged with the voters in the constituency through street corner meetings and led a massive roadshow in Kalpetta.

Win margin moderated

Now, Congress leaders have moderated the projected victory margin to 4 lakh votes, even while acknowledging that they would introspect over the voter apathy in the bypoll. If Ms. Vadra’s victory margin is less than 3 lakh, it would be an embarrassment for the party, sources said.

While the CPI fielded old warhorse Sathyan Mokeri, the BJP chose Navya Haridas, a novice to parliamentary politics.

Voter apathy

Poll observers feel that voters may have felt that the election was unnecessarily imposed upon them. Moreover, with no broader parliamentary implications at stake, the electorate’s enthusiasm remained limited. The Meppadi landslides in July likely dampened local sentiment, while agricultural workers were hesitant to sacrifice a workday. Questions about Mr. Gandhi’s performance may have also influenced the electorate’s apathy.

While Congress leadership anticipates a reduced victory margin, Ms. Vadra’s foray in the bypoll made an attempt to bring together the party’s disparate factions. Her campaign has also drawn parallels to former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, Ms. Vadra’s grandmother, whose deep emotional connection with Kerala’s populace remains part of the State’s political legacy.

At the same time, sources said that Ms. Vadra’s entry into electoral arena was “ill-advised”, as it provides the ruling BJP at the Centre with ammunition to criticise the Congress party’s dynastic politics. Her win could further result in the potential emergence of duel power centres within the party, especially considering the political aspirations of her husband, Robert Vadra, a businessman who has been vocal about his ambitions.

Battle in Palakkad

Many believe that the real battle is actually unfolding in Palakkad, where the Assembly bypoll has been rescheduled for November 20.

However, political parties have raised a concern about a possible decline in voter disengagement, following the pattern observed in the Chelakkara Assembly bypoll. The latter recorded a turnout of 72.77%, a noticeable decrease from the 77.46% witnessed during the 2021 Assembly elections.