WASHINGTON: The most intense diplomatic campaign for ending the war in twenty months of fighting in Gaza by Biden administration is under way in capitals across the Middle East, at the UN, from the White House and beyond. It aims to make Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas leaders agree to a propounded deal that would bring about a cease-fire and freedom for more hostages. However, after one week of the US led pressure campaign, no positive signals have been sent by either side indicating that Biden’s cease-fire appeal launched on May 31 was having any effect on them.
This is a public test for Hamas and Israel as to whether they are willing to stop their fight or not because at least on terms which are less than what they have been stating as their ultimate goals; such as complete annihilation of militant group or total withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza.
The latest attempt by US President Joe Biden at persuading both ally Israel and the militants constitutes his view of this proposal as an Israeli initiative. This represents another opportunity for America’s top leadership in seeking an end to a war involving tens of thousands casualties while generating regional tensions and distracting much attention within his government.
It’s not that Biden’s cease-fire option he outlined live on television last week was startlingly new. He just made it clear what it means and gave it full weight through the American presidency when he called upon both factions to adhere to it.
Biden’s words about first stages were very similar to those being discussed between USA, Qatar, Egypt mediators with Israel and Hamas during many weeks.
Under this phase one should be six-week-long ceasefire period when Israelis will leave populated areas inside Gaza Strip. In addition, if Israel gives up hundreds of Palestinian captives then Hamas must release some women prisoners amongst them who are old sick or wounded after being seized during October 7 attacks on Israeli soil that triggered conflict.
Ultimately all remaining hostages will be released unconditionally whereas Israelis will withdraw in next stages; though the details are not clear.
“Everyone that wants peace now has to shout out and tell them to take this deal,” said Biden a week ago.
Neither Israel nor Hamas had agreed by Friday. According to Netanyahu, public descriptions of the proposal are not the same as its actual contents and Israel cannot stop fighting until “the destruction” of the military and political leadership of Hamas.
Novik who is now a fellow with Washington-based Israel Policy Forum, explained US aim: “So Israel would say yes’ to its own proposal”.
The Biden administration continues its pressure on Hamas and Israel.
According to Jonathan Panikoff, a former US intelligence official who is now the director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council’s Middle East program, the US will do everything it can in some way to keep pushing this until there’s no place to go any more.
US diplomats are asking the Security Council to adopt a resolution demanding a permanent ceasefire between Hamas and Israel in Gaza, over Israel’s objections made at the UN. Next week Biden is sending Secretary of State Antony Blinken back to the Middle East for his eighth visit since the war began, a lightning tour of Middle East capitals selling the ceasefire proposal.
Bill Burns CIA Director and Biden’s Middle East advisor Brett McGurk have also journeyed to the region to try to get support for this deal and show key players how it could work out.
The plan has been endorsed by The Group of Seven leading global economies and countries with hostages held by militants in Gaza. Also, Biden, Blinken and other officials from America are said to be talking all over rallying regional Arab governments from Egypt right up to Jordan behind them through phone calls.
Panikoff said many allies seem glad that after weeks of dithering on getting cease-fire talks back on track, Biden has taken an initiative towards this end.
So far there’s little sign that US efforts have changed the political equation in Israel yet. Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners have said they will topple him if he accepts Biden’s proposal.
Netanyahu has little incentive now to risk heading into another election trailing in opinion polls and facing an ongoing corruption trial. While opposition leader Yair Lapid has offered Netanyahu his support for a hostage agreement, these two men are sworn enemies such that a partnership of any kind would not endure beyond their initial misunderstanding.
A news conference has been scheduled by Benny Gantz on Saturday where he is expected; however, he previously threatened resigning from office this weekend if Netanyahu failed to present a plan for the war and Gaza.
Even if Gantz leaves, Netanyahu will still have a parliamentary majority. However, Gantz is respected in Washington as a former military chief and defense minister whose departure would undermine Netanyahu’s international credibility and make him more reliant than ever on far-right coalition partners who argue that Israel should reoccupy Gaza and are against the ceasefire proposal.
Novik believes that popular protests may be one of only few scenarios which could influence Netanyahu towards signing a deal. On the other hand, Novik contended that even just Biden stating publicly his intention to denounce Netanyahu could prod him toward compromising due to America’s strategic importance to Israel.
According to what US officials heard from Qataris and Egyptians this week who handle direct communications with Hamas officials in these negotiations, Hamas is expected to deliver a formal response in coming days to the proposal Biden is pushing.
A permanent ceasefire guarantee by Isreal, complete withdrawal of its troops from Gaza Strip, prisoner exchange among others are some of the conditions outlined by senior Hamas official Osama Hamdan this week while speaking in Beirut about Biden’s recent statement as being “positive”.
While other political personalities including the supreme leader of Hamas are based in foreign countries, any proposals from Hamas must also be sent to Gaza’s other military leaders such as Yahya Sinwar – whose opinions matter the most. They stay in tunnels that go as deep as 100 feet (about 30m) and above and are believed to have encircled themselves with foreign captives to discourage assault.
