Both Lok Sabha and Assembly elections are being held in Odisha. Naveen Patnaik, Chief Minister of the State, will reportedly make history if he gets elected to the head it for the sixth time in a row. It’s a contest between two main groups: Biju Janata Dal (BJD), which is ruling, and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), an opposition party. The Congress comes third.
During this election season, the opposition campaign against the BJD government has not dwelled on either creating divisions among people or making empty promises; it was rather focused on Odia asmita. VK Pandian who changed his occupation from a bureaucrat to a politician is primarily targeted by Mr. Patnaik himself due to his strong loyalty towards him. During his tenure, Pandian had become one of the leading campaigners for the party next to Chief Minister.
It was commonly acknowledged that there existed some bonhomie between the BJD and BJP before asmita became a key election agenda. Recently, Prime minister Modi considered Mr Patnaik as one of his “dear friends” while addressing masses at public gathering. Both political parties were willing to enter into pre-poll alliance but something went wrong leading to straight fight between BJD and BJP in Odisha State.
Odisha became first state which formed on language basis only. Its uniqueness arises from its rich cultural heritage as well as significant historical legacies associated with it. According to BJP’s point of view this identity is under attack and if they let BJD lead the state again then they will further dent their self-respect because another non-Odia would be at the helm namely Mr.V.K.Pandian.
There appears to be some confusion about whether or not elections are taking place in Orissa by BJP campagna managers. They want to change a government that has been running for twenty years now but still Home Affairs Minister Amit Shah keeps telling his audience that it is not the political party but “the officer from outside.” Since the saffron party wants to show how asmita connects with Odias in a state where Lord Jagannath reigns supreme, this was an illogical step towards mixing Ram Mandir debate with its narrative.
Elections are mostly about what people think. The BJP seems to be losing the perception battle in Orissa only relying on asmita narrative alone. The Odia population hardly uses this word at all. Nevertheless, the party could not find a term more resonant with Odia voters.
Other crucial issues such as high youth unemployment rates, abysmal healthcare and education systems, economic migration etc have taken a backseat due to asmita talk. Even though Odisha has reportedly registered India’s highest youth unemployment rate according to recent International Labor Organization findings, BJP campaigns virtually ignored the issue. Similarly, the party has missed out on appealing to young people who vote in large numbers today. This made leaders of BJD make some moves towards attracting them some months before elections casting doubts on their real motivation while youth outreach programs of BJP remained small-scale till now leading up to poll time.
The Opposition’s campaign, while emphasising asmita, have also failed to effectively tackle the BJD’s core strength — its support among women. There are at least 70 lakh women self-help group (SHG) members in Odisha who form the backbone of women’s political agency in the rural parts. The Opposition has no intention to invade these strong structures and networks of SHGs of women which are a major advantage for BJD.
Focusing on asmita instead governance failures could have only won favor with middle class voters who hardly count in an electoral sense. The BJP does not appear to have learnt from its poor performance in the Panchayat election held two years ago, where it only won about 5% of the Zilla Parisad seats, a massive decline from its previous performance.
Moreover, by only targeting Mr. Pandian, the BJP has left brand Naveen unscathed. Deflecting attacks on his own image has been Mr. Patnaik’s single most successful strategy and the reason for his endurance throughout his more than two decade term in office. The Opposition might as well be playing into his hands better he would not expect.
Subhankar Nayak is a policy researcher. X: @subhankarnayak
