It was a little after 12am when several men in boats started to remove orange navigational marks on the Narva River, which is the line of demarcation between Russia and Estonia, and through which Nato’s extension terminates.
In view of this, it was still twilight by the end of May even at that time of day in northern Europe; hence the Russian border guards lifting markers were clearly see by Estonian authorities who were watching them.
However, for one thing, what Russia did in early hours of May 23 might not necessarily mean that it was dark; rather, Estonia took it as their clear intention to Baltic states as well as Western countries generally.
This occurrence is considered to be part of several other suchlike incidents aimed at provoking and destabilizing these nations along its 3,550- kilometer (2,210-mile) frontier with Russia and Belarus. Not amounting to conventional attacks that would trigger Nato’s collective response but still increasing in number since Russia started her full-scale war against Ukraine in early 2022.
Thus, this makes the Baltic region an additional frontline for confrontation between Western powers and Moscow itself.
“Russia is fighting two wars at the moment,” declared the Finnish President Alexander Stubb at a foreign policy forum held in Helsinki on June 14. “Kinetic war takes place in Ukraine while European hybrid war aims at creating new narratives or shaking our sense of security.”
Groups of migrants are sent to storm borders; GPS signals are jammed; petty acts like recruiting criminals for sabotage have been added recently – steps taken by countries from Finland via the Baltics to Poland and further south cited as measures designed to disconcert their populations.
Each state has a tainted history with Moscow but is now also under NATO membership. They have committed $3.5bn towards both reinforcing and upgrading the eastern frontier while asking that hybrid attacks be on top priority when Nato’s convenes next month in Washington.
Russian Foreign Ministry in Moscow did not respond to an emailed request for comment on its activities last Wednesday.
In a matter of months, Finland and Sweden have endured airspace violations, there has been interception of multiple commercial aircraft from landing at small airports due to GPS interference, and Poland has apprehended people accused of Russia-backed acts of sabotage within the EU.
This is another old trick with a modern twist: questioning borders already established.
For some time now Russian border at Narva has been a problematic area for Estonia; these problems have escalated since President Putin initiated his Ukrainian aggression. In order to limit traffic crossing the border bridge this year Moscow allowed only pedestrians through. The territory is under Estonian surveillance for drone flights and posters warning travelers against recruitment by Russian intelligence are place there.
The government in Tallinn has always agreed with Moscow on where navigational markers should be place along the river in order to prevent fishing and leisure boats from coming into Russia by mistake but since 2023, Russia has not given its consent and has disagreed with the placement of about half of the 250 buoys planned for this year. The country insisted that it will return those marks that were remove and will continue putting up more until such a time when they are provided with proof that shipping lane changed its course. It’s waiting for an answer.
Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland share a continental boundary line of over twenty three hundred kilometers; add to that twelve hundred fifty shared with Belarus and it is longer than the border between US and Mexico.
Ever since the Cold War a 100 kilometer corridor separating Poland from Lithuania called Suwalki Gap has bee considered as one of the strategic choke point in any conflict scenario. It’s located between Belarus and Russian exclave Kaliningrad which is heavily fortified; if cut off from this area, Baltic states would lose their land access to other parts of Europe.
This is a weakness that has bee used to unnerve citizens of Lithuania. In March, President Alexander Lukashenko revealed Belarus’ plan through social media posts to capture the Suwalki Gap and shut off Russia’s Kaliningrad. Lukashenko posed in military uniform sitting beside his fluffy white dog while conversing online with army commanders about invasion plans targeting part of northern Poland plus Lithuania.
Instead, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis argues: “All we see is an attempt by Russia to spread fear, uncertainty and doubt (FUD) around what they want or intend in the Baltic Sea.”
They have long been among Moscow’s most hawkish critics — either formerly reluctant Soviet republics, Eastern bloc members or cautious spectators. They have responded by raising spending on defense far above NATO’s 2% of GDP target and considering conscription, knowing they were right.
Russia has branded the actions of both Finland and Sweden, its neighbor with a common sea boundary, as provocations for breaking away from non-alignment that lasted for many years and joining Nato’s. The Baltic states are now hosting advanced Nato battle groups thereby raising the military alliance’s forward presence sharply on Russia’s doorstep.
“There will be no war today.”
This is an age where “fake news” and influence campaigns are at all-time highs.
According to intelligence agencies in Lithuania, Moscow frequently calls people from the Baltic countries who get involve in local wars as militants or anticommunists. It also uses trolls and bot armies to spread vicious rumors attached to social media posts. Intelligence officers have also warned that unlike before when language errors could easily be detect in disinformation materials; use of artificial intelligence complicates this more, ACCORDING TO THE HEAD OF LITHUANIA’S MAIN CYBER SECURITY AGENCY
While remaining ineffective, Kremlin has been attempting to mobilize Russian-speaking minorities in Latvia and Estonia so as to foster internal divisions while doing so between Poles and Ukrainians who had fled there during the conflict.
The Lithuanian military used social media to pacify the population in March with a message saying, “there is no war today”, after they were approach by members of the public asking about the start of hostilities and how to get ready for it.
There are more acts that are meant to be spread out so as to create fear and anxiety confirmed Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, who was placed on a wanted list by Kremlin this year. On May 23rd she said: “We shouldn’t let ourselves be take in by Russia’s scare tactics.”
Russia has taken even more low tech approaches like moving migrants closer to border areas which are meant to put pressure on border control and potentially cause public dissent. This follows a strategy that started in 2015 when large groups of people suddenly appeared at isolated Lapland border stations in Finland and Norway according to Finnish authorities who later said that it was a test run.
There was an increased scale migration crisis in Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Syrians among other nationalities brought from Middle East flown into Belarus. Some died from coldness inside forests after being turn away from crossing borders. Last autumn men’s groups on old bikes or children bicycles began showing up again at the Finnish-Russian frontier causing Helsinki shut all road crossings, since then nobody is allow across.
Finland, Latvia, Poland have built walls to stop migration while Lithuania has completed its 500 plus km fence which runs along its border with Belarus. Warsaw alone will allocate about $2.5 billion for protection against cyber-attacks as well as conventional invasion involving tanks through reinforcement of its boundary.
From Norway down to Poland Russia’s European neighbors could build a “drone wall” against Russian surveillance drones track migration and disrupt smuggling gangs. In addition Latvia is planning for drone armies investment this year like Lithuania where local defense industry production has bee boosted; now everyone can learn how to operate drones there just like driving cars.
But frontline states investing so much in their security say they should not bear it alone. “We are working for all,” said Foreign Minister of Estonia, Margus Tsahkna, on 13th June. “This should be a European Union matter.”
According to the May report by the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats in Helsinki, Russia is becoming more active with regards to its hybrid operations aimed at weakening and destabilizing Europe from within. While large-scale expulsions of Russian intelligence operatives across the region have hampered its ability to carry out such attacks, officials concede they tend to be one step behind whatever Moscow comes up with.
As Finland’s Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen summed up: “There is no front line in this.” She added: “All of Europe now is at war.”
