As the train rolls into Kyiv on Friday morning, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will have at the top of his agenda, India’s balancing act in relation to the Russia-Ukraine war. Since 2022, this is the first time a high-ranking Indian has visited Ukraine. Within those six weeks after leaving Moscow and having a meeting between President Vladimir Putin, travelling there is part of that process but they say that the results from it are going to be weighed carefully given Ukraine’s “disappointments” with New Delhi’s position in the past.
However, it is Mr. Modi’s stance regarding the Ukrainian conflict as well as his possible response to Ukraine’s requests for recovery assistance or provisioning them with military equipment and a prospective Indian mediation between both parties involved that are most nominally interesting to these countries. PM Modi one of very few leaders to have personally visited both Kyiv and Moscow during the war ( apart from leaders of Turkey, South Africa, Indonesia, Guinea-Bissau and Hungary).
Happymon Jacob, professor at JNU and Director of Council for Strategic and Defence Research commented: “The visit comes at a time when the Swiss peace summit failed to decisively impact the war, European nations are increasingly worried about the rising costs associated with the war, and the U.S. is preoccupied with its domestic politics.” “If Indian establishment decides so there lies an opportunity here,” he added; “to begin a new global dialogue on mediating among hostile fighting parties. In this way India could play its own small but not insignificant role.”
The optics of Mr. Modi’s Ukraine visit, which will last between 6 and 8 hours in the capital Kyiv that has been devastated by war, will be big. In Moscow, President Modi had paid homage to the Tomb of Unknown Soldier, but he did not go to any memorials dedicated to Russian soldiers killed during the war – this might be harder in Kyiv given the extent of casualties and damage caused by the conflict in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was especially critical about PM Modi hugging Mr. Putin in July, saying that it was a “big disappointment and a severe blow to peace efforts” because it happened on the same day when a children hospital was bombed in Kyiv city and it is still unknown whether PM Modi would go to any of those bombed site or meet with those injured at hospitals as many other world leaders visiting Ukraine have done for over two years now.
India has abstained from all UN resolutions condemning Russia’s actions since 2022; moreover, it dissociated itself from an outcome document at SwissPeace conference held this June—an attitude that did not sit well with some Ukrainians who recall PM Modi having met President Zelesnky prior to the said summit.
“Though this visit can help defuse some of the negativity currently characterizing India-Ukraine ties, its unlikely direct Indian mediation in Russia-Ukraine war or raising Ukraine’s importance vis-à-vis Russia within India’s strategic calculus,” pointed out Mr Jacob.
According to Manav Sachdeva who is a goodwill ambassador for Ukraine appointed by President Zelenskyy after Russia blocked wheat exports through Turkey Strait, India could still grab its “strategic opportunity”” by ensuring that Russia participates in the next peace summit slated for November while offering mediation or dialogue channels.
“India can play a key role in assisting peace building thereby underpinning its global clout as well as commitment to a stable international order,” said Sachdeva, also a former UN staffer who has served in violent spots and is now based in Delhi, to The Hindu.
He added that India’s willingness to take part in Ukraine’s reconstruction would be crucial for further cooperation particularly in infrastructure, technology and healthcare. Up till now, New Delhi has only given tents and medicines to Ukraine but not yet endorsed requests for items like telecom towers; medical equipment including ventilators; construction as well as excavating machinery that have been made especially during the visit of Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba to Delhi this March.
“There is no hiding the disappointment that India has yet to respond to Ukraine’s previous requests for assistance. However, the post-war reconstruction period offers a valuable opportunity for India to provide substantial support,” Mr. Sachdeva said.
However, the most challenging aspect of Mr Modi’s program will be how he can ensure such backing satisfies his hosts in Kyiv while at the same time maintaining India’s age-old much stronger ties with Russia.
