Kamala Harris has grown her lead over the former president in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll. The difference is 45% to 41%, and the vice-president has jumped to the top. The survey, which lasted 8 days and ended wednesday, also brings a leap from the one point margin Harris maintained in late July.
Kamala Harris also owes his advantage to the women and Latino voters who have increasingly supported her candidacy again. Now Harris is ahead over Trump by running 49 to 36 using both demographics, which is a shift from her 9 point lead among women and 6 point lead among Hispanics in July. Trump remains dominant with white and male votes while his lead on less educated voters has reduced to seven points, down from 14.
The change happens after President Biden endorsing his resignation from the race for the 2024 presidential election on July 21, following a dismal debate performance. Since then Biden has exited and Kamala Harris scored some more points in the national polls as well as swing states.
In these states that are critical to winning the presidency Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, Michigan, and Nevada trumps narrowy leads Harris at 45% to 43 among registered voters. However, the results of another Bloomberg News/Morning consult poll directly contradict this prevailing trend arguing that Harris has a lead against Trump in all these states or is trailing neck to neck.
Republican political consultant Matt Wolking voiced guarded optimism for Trump contending against Kamala Harris, but insisted the focus should shift on ways to bolster Trump’s campaign. Since successfully securing the Democratic nomination, Harris has been seen gaining ground from her campaigns in important states especially Georgia.
All is not lost when it comes to Harris: even sevens months for the elections, Reuters/Ipsos from twenty to seventy-three percent of self identified Democrats get more enthused to vote in November, a corn harvest. In this regard Harris is able to position herself as the future where the voters are more concerned with turning the tide and thus 52 percent of those who voted for Kamala Harris did so to support her candidacy as opposed to voting just to see Trump lose.
As per his core support base, Trump continues to enjoy a level of retention with 64 percent of his supporters voting for their candidate on policies and not only for actively working towards ensuring Harris’ defeat. Policy wise Trump beats Harris on all counts except the economic issue. While Trump beats Harris on economic management hands down and for good reasons, Kamala Harris boasts a healthy edge over him on the 47%-31% range with abortion politics, a very sensitive issue among many democrats since the Supreme response back in 2022.
The 41% of voters surveyed who identified themselves as either Democrat or Independents suggests a dramatic change in the presidential race. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a self-declared independent candidate who suspended his campaign on August 23, had support of only six percent in the poll.
