French President Emmanuel Macron’s political failure in pivotal parliamentary elections, expected on Sunday, could turn the country into a lame duck; while it may also weaken him abroad and overshadow his legacy as France gears up to host the Paris Olympics.
The international arena knows Macron, France’s youngest president ever, for his tireless diplomacy and pro-European stance.Now that he is likely to have no majority in parliament and a hostile government, many are wondering how he will remain in power. In 2027, when the constitution prohibits him from running for a third straight time, Macron (46) has to show that he is not becoming a lame duck.
It won’t be good news for Macron regardless of the outcome of Sunday’s runoff. French press has recently talked about an “end of reign” atmosphere at the Elysée presidential palace. Polls indicate that Macron’s centrist alliance will lose in Sunday’s runoff after coming third in the first round.
“The French seemed determined to punish their head of state during the first ballot,” said Dominique Moïsi, a political analyst based in Paris speaking to Associated Press.
Macron will most likely be weakened by co-governing with a rival party If National Rally far-right wing parties and its allies win the majority of seats in parliament it would put this centrist president into uncomfortable situation of having to work with an anti-immigrant PM who is nationalist. Alternatively, Macron might need to find ways how he can build up operational government such as via alliance with left-wing rivals. Anyway, it would mean abandoning plans that were focused on pro-business measures aimed at boosting French economy.
“We are living in unknown unknown,” Moïsi said. “Because coalition governments are not a French tradition.”
Outside France however had been considered as one among key world players largely due to his endless diplomatic engagements across globe. Macron’s involvement was deep when it came to western supportive measures towards Ukraine since Russia invaded it in February 2022. France has also been pushing for diplomatic tracks with its Arab counterparts in the Middle East. Earlier this year, Macron outlined his vision on EU calling on the 27-nation bloc to develop a strong defence force and undertake major trade and economic reforms so as to be competitive against China and US.
The President of France is vested with some powers over foreign policy, European affairs and defense by the French Constitution. However, what happens when there’s no government backing him, as well as in case he shares power with a prime minister from another party are still open questions.
Although his pro-business policies have led to a decrease in unemployment rate they have met criticism.He has never held any elected office before becoming president.Macron quit Rothschild banks at age 30 to become economic adviser for Socialist President François Hollande, whom he served alongside for two years at the Elysée Palace. On the other hand, during his tenure as an economy minister under Hollande from 2014-2016, he introduced some measures including allowing more shops to operate longer hours such as Sundays and evenings and liberalising closed sectors.
41-year-old former socialist who won his first election as a president, Emmanuel Macron wanted to make labor markets more flexible; therefore he took steps towards making it harder for unemployed people to get benefits. His administration also cut taxes on companies while seeking ways how they can hire new employees.
The yellow vest anti-government protests soon erupted against perceived social injustice, leading to Macron being dubbed the “president of the rich.” Many still regard him as arrogant and disconnected from regular people. Critics on the left accused him of undermining labor rights. Macaron argued that unemployment had fallen from more than 10% to 7.5% now and that France has been Europe’s most attractive country for foreign investment in recent years.
Macron was reelected in 2022, defeating for the second consecutive time his far-right rival Marine Le Pen in the runoff of the presidential election. However, he lost his parliamentary majority despite his centrist alliance winning a large proportion of seats in the National Assembly. Then he had difficulty getting an unpopular retirement plan through when it raised minimum age from 62 to 64, provoking months of mass demonstrations which weakened his leadership position. Hundreds of cities, towns and villages were swept by riots last year after a teenager was shot dead by a policeman.
This election could weaken political center and make him a lame duckPolitically, this centrist leader formed a party to outdo both mainstream right and left. This also seems destined not to succeed at all. His call for Snap elections actually resulted into two main forces: far-right National Rally and a broad leftist coalition including Socialists, Greens and radical-left France Unbowed.
Macron’s own camp questioned the president’s political skills after he announced the surprise decision to dissolve the National Assembly last month. Bruno Le Maire who has been his finance minister over seven years told France Inter radio that “this decision has created — in our country, in French people everywhere — concern, incomprehension sometimes anger.” According to Edouard Philippe who is Macron’s ex prime minister accused him of having “killed” his own central majority.
Next week at a Nato summit in Washington Macron’s fate may become one agenda item where world leaders will meet with the new UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
“The paradox of the present situation is that as a result of the last two elections in Great Britain and in France, there will be more Great Britain and less France at the Nato summit,” Moïsi said. “The strongest personality will be the new prime minister of Great Britain. And the weak personality will be the president of France.”
