Northeast Myanmar has seen a new round of fighting, ending a Chinese-brokered ceasefire and adding to the military regime’s woes as it faces multiple challenges from resistance forces in its civil war.
Last week, with local support, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), one of three major militias that launched a surprise joint offensive last October, resumed attacks on regime positions in northeastern Shan state bordering China, Laos, Thailand and neighbouring Mandalay region.
And since then there is also engagement of Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army whose combined troops are reported to have surrounded Lashio city which is strategically important for the military command in its northeast stronghold, by Friday were said to have encircled Lashio city which is a strategic headquarter for the Northeast Military Command.
The TNLA spokesperson Lway Yay Oo said last week that this was “1027”offensive next phase when even after ceasefire violations provoked retaliation using artillery and airstrikes against them from the Tatmadaw.
She said: “Our Phase two main objective is getting rid of dictatorship and then we will prioritize protecting our fellow citizens.”
The military junta’s Thet Swe claimed that the militias had recommenced hostilities with no regard for civilian safety.
“In view of TNLA violation of cease-fire agreement; Tatmadaw [the Burmese term for military] is keeping alive ethnic people lives and assets,” he said in an email to parami news agency.
There was no evidence if not that another member of Three Brotherhood Alliance – powerful Arakan Army – engaged in any way into hostilities reignited at Shan state but their fighters has never stopped battling since Jan. 11 cease-fire on their home Rakhine ground not included within such resolution
According to TNLA they have already taken more than thirty army bases; currently they possess west part of Mogok where rubies mines are making it very lucrative. Besides there are combats around Kyaukme situate at intersection of highways and Nawnghkio in south-west which leads to Pyin Oo Lwin, as well as other Burma Army garrison towns along the same road.
“That is where you have to cutoff, preventing the military from sending reinforcements,” Morgan Michaels, a Singapore-based analyst with the International Institute of Strategic Studies who runs its Myanmar Conflict Map project said.
To the west of Shan state, where Mandalay lies; a local People’s Defense Force (PDF) joined TNLA offensive. It is one among many armed groups that have sprung up in support of Myanmar’s underground National Unity Government, which considers itself as the legitimate administration in the country.
One Osmond, spokesperson for Mandalay PDF, who gave only his codename because he was worried about his safety stated that they had taken over almost twenty military fighting posts including those being manned by their allies.
Under this offensive in October by Three Brotherhood Alliance there were rapid territorial gains by militias who took control of vast areas in the north and northeast including multiple key border crossings with China and several main army bases.
This is because the alliance militias are closely linked to China, and as such, it is thought that Beijing silently agreed with the plan due to its growing discontent at the country’s military regime seeming not to care about the increasing drug business around its borders or proliferation of cyber scam centers in Myanmar that employ Chinese workers and other people from neighboring countries.
Even then, it was China who helped broker a ceasefire in January that finally ended major fighting in northeast while other ethnic armed organizations and PDF groups attacked regime positions elsewhere across the country.
When asked about renewed violence in northeastern Myanmar, China’s Foreign Ministry told parami that “we stand ready to provide relevant support as necessary,” but declined to say whether it had been in touch with The Three Brotherhood Alliance or Burma’s new ruling junta.
“China urges all parties in Myanmar to earnestly abide by the cease-fire agreement, exercise maximum restraint, disengage on the ground as soon as possible, take actual practical measures and substantive actions to ensure peace along China-Myanmar border territories and safety of Chinese personnel and projects,” said a faxed reply from the ministry after getting questions.
Accordingly, TNLA attacks were not completely unexpect by the Myanmar army since. They had mobilized forces fighting, fortified defenses including security check points all over ahead of renewed offensive; Michaels said.
“They didn’t get catch completely off guard although they’ve not been able to respond yet there’s been no counter-offensive.” He added.
However, why TNLA made those attacks is not yet clear. One possibility could be taking advantage of stretched thin military service members now on several fronts before more wakes are train for fighting induction.
Meanwhile 5k more concripts have already joined up with their comrades plus another 10k will be add over time until December ends. According to Thet Swe these ones will be attach only for sentries etcetera releasing better trained solders frpnt lines.
“If the conscription carries forward and the military can halt these offenses and make it through to the end of the year. The next year there could be a counter-offensive,” Michaels said. “So this is the closing window to get this done.”
The same kind of question hangs over MNDAA: whether or not it plans to join in with the larger offensive or just wants to force its way into encircled Lashio, lay siege to it, or use its presence there merely as a distraction while they escape. The group did not respond to requests for comment.
“It’s not that abrupt collapse of 1027 when you compare it to what happened first in 1027,” Michaels said.
“The military is still taking losses but it’s just not at that same scale or pace. But if we see MNDAA completely join then we’re looking at a different situation.”
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