The Political Future of Ursula von der Leyen hangs in the balance as on Thursday, when European Parliament decides whether to vote for or against her reappointment as President of the European Commission for a further five-year term. The EU’s powerful executive arm.
The vote will determine if there is continuity in the European Union’s key institution at a time of external and internal challenges – including mounting support for far-right and eurosceptic political parties across the 27-nation bloc.
With no obvious alternative candidate, von der Leyen’s supporters have framed the vote as a choice between stability and chaos, as her rejection would create political deadlock.
“It would be seen to be rolling out the carpet for the far-right,” said Sean Kelly, an EU lawmaker from von der Leyen’s centre-right European People’s Party group, of the possibility that the parliament rejects her.
Von der Leyen, who is 65 years old intends to speak about her plans during his reelection bid tomorrow based on climate change policies which were ranked top among all other countries while dealing with global warming. This was also accompanied by a Covid-19 cost that amounted to eight hundred billion euros (875) and fourteen trade embargoes on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine.
Even among critics, there is little appetite to create a leadership vacuum in Europe months ahead of November’s U.S. Presidential election, where a victory for Republican Donald Trump could upend western unity on supporting Ukraine.
But it is still a close call.
For Von der Leyen, who has seven children under her belt – she became the first female head of this organization and needs at least 361 votes from out of 720 members in order not to fail during this year’s elections. By contrast certain groups are expected not to back him when casting their secret ballots but some members are likely to betray them by alleging voting against him.
To pass comfortably, she may need support from parts of the 78-strong European Conservatives and Reformists group (ECR) or the Greens’ 53 lawmakers.
“Bas Eickhout, a co-president of Green lawmaker group, said that ‘We need that message that we are building on the current Green Deal and that there’s no backtracking,’” as far her endorsement is concerned.
What lawmakers will have secured for themselves in weeks of intense bargaining will be disclosed in Von der Leyen’s speech. Both groups mentioned above are yet to decide if they would vote in favor of Ursula or not.
Dominik Tarczyński, an ECR-lawmaker, stated that all eighteen Polish members would vote against her.
EU parliamentarians will cast votes today at 1 p.m. local time (1100 GMT) in Strasbourg, France.
The EU country leaders have one month to suggest another candidate if von der Leyen fails – this is likely to delay a start of functioning of the new European Commission which submits proposals for new EU policies until 2025.
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