Electoral campaigns are very significant in shaping the choices of voters in a democracy. This is because campaign as a political strategy performs three functions – it links parties and their leaders with the public; it acquaints voters with the party manifesto and candidate’s/party’s vision; and it shapes perceptions who will win on basis of interactions with these campaigns.
According to CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey 2024, majority of the voters are interested in the election campaigns and make up their mind to vote for a specific candidate during this period. Moreover, Congress and State parties utilized social media platforms more often than Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) thereby reaching out many people through door-to-door marketing strategies. These observations coupled with increased vote share of Congress, INDIA alliance, and regional parties in 2024 Lok Sabha polls suggest that political campaign could be an important determinant on electoral battlegrounds. The argument underscores the importance of exploring further into political campaign as maker or breaker of a winner.
Time of vote choice
From our research, 41 percent made up their mind during the electoral campaign period (Table 1). It implies that most voters incline towards making up their mind after candidates have been unveiled and election campaigning has started. In addition, such decisions are based on which candidate/bloc is able to influence his/her constituents through manifestos as well as promises he/she made during campaigns.
Contrarily, 28% of the respondents made up their mind before the candidate came out. One might as well refer to them as early deciders or diehard party supporters who put their party ideologies and platforms ahead of any particular candidate or campaign period. They support political parties and therefore form their core electorate.
The third group is of the late deciders. Such a group constitutes 28% of respondents in post-poll data (QRP). They decide on whom to back only a day or two before voting on election day itself. The effect of a campaign here also has significance.
This opinion can be supported by stressing campaigns as being important for voter preference formation (Table 2). In this case, we conducted a survey where 71% showed great deal or somewhat interest in the election campaign; this means that voters need to know what party and its candidate offers which enables them to make an informed decision. Notably, as much as 23% of those asked showed no interest at all towards campaigns for electing leaders.
Campaigning strategies
The data finally helps to decode the bigger picture by representing campaign strategy as one of the causes of shaping electoral outcomes. However, when considering Table 3, it is surprising that BJP did not do much in campaigning compared to other parties. Congress and State parties were contacting more voters on social media and door-to-door campaigns than BJP. Surprisingly, 51% of all respondents were contacted by Congress through phone calls, text messages, WhatsApp and Facebook for its social media campaigns while State parties (the first two largest) also contacted 54% of them. Conversely, this percentage drops down to 44% for BJP. This is similar to when door-to-door campaigns are concerned where 46% and 47% respectively are used by the Congress and State Parties with BJP trailing at 40%. The possibility could be that BJP relied more on star campaigner rallies, public meetings or charisma from its leadership.
To sum up, the post-election study reveals that voters choice depends on three factors: the level of firm support for a party, voters’ interest in electoral campaigns and political party’s campaign strategies.
