In the most recent confrontation in the South China Sea, a Chinese coast guard was seen brandishing axes while a Filipino sailor lost his thumb in an altercation that demonstrated Beijing’s readiness to test how far it could go with Manila and its Washington allies.
The Philippine Armed Forces described China’s actions on June 17 – which included stone throwing and slashing an inflatable boat trying to resupply its troops – as “a brutal assault”, stating that Chinese sailors acted like pirates. The US State Department termed this as China’s “reckless” action, threatening peace and stability within the region.
But that was about everything they said publicly; none of these countries wanted to escalate what had been happening over the years into a crisis.
This is not to imply that Manila is taking matters lightly right now.
President Marcos Jr told soldiers in an address afterwards that he was “not in the business to instigate wars” and his foreign ministry on Wednesday sent a diplomatic note to China seeking dialogue.
The government’s executive secretary, Lucas Bersamin, initially said the whole episode was “probably a misunderstanding or an accident” and said the country would give advanced notice of such missions in the future, a move seen as appeasing China’s demands.
Philippines Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro immediately reversed Bersamin’s statement by saying we would not announce our plans for resupplying missions into Second Thomas Shoal with supplies because it is only a decrepit World War II era ship. The video evidence showed it wasn’t just mere accidental collision.
However, following this incident and subsequent remarks by officials sparked doubt about whether Manila can continue pushing against China without greater involvement from an America sidetracked by wars in Europe and Middle East.
“China’s escalating violence reflects Beijing’s confidence the US will do nothing more than make another strong statement,” said Carl Schuster, former operations director at Joint Intelligence Center of US Pacific Command. President Marcos also realizes there are limitations on US support. So, without much prospect of help from America, he must find a way to ease the tension.”
In spite of an international tribunal ruling against this view, China remained resolute in its claim over a huge part of the South China Sea.
“It is our territory,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning told reporters on Monday. Manila “should go back on the track of negotiating with China and safeguard the peace and stability in the South China Sea.”
Philippine’s Marcos Says Force Will Not Be Used Over China Sea Spat
After the incident, the US reminded Beijing that an attack by force would be considered under their mutual defense pact with Philippines while Secretary Blinken emphasized during his conversation with his Philippine counterpart about U.S.’s “ironclad commitments” under the treaty.
Earlier this year, The President of Philippines has already specified his red line by saying that if any foreign power kills a Filipino soldier it will invoke terms of defence treaty. Such position was echoed by president Joe Biden when they met Marcos in Washington for talks with Japan’s Prime Minister.
However, a similar but more serious situation occurred last week. The video footage shows a Chinese boat charging on top of a Philippine ship. A Filipino Naval sailor Mr. Seaman Jeffry Facundo told the Senate Committee that his thumb was trapped under the keel of a Chinese vessel.
China claimed that its actions were justified.
This incident represents America’s perpetual dilemma as it tries to reconcile interests with the threat of war with China in Asia. In recent times, China has exploited rivals’ fears of provoking open conflict to impose control over contested areas.
With no more robust support from Washington, Manila is dwarfed by numerous Chinese ships that surround and obstruct vessels seeking to reach disputed reefs and islands because they have been engaging this strategy against countries stretching from Philippines to Vietnam. For example, Chinese shipping is second only to that of the US Navy in protecting global traffic through this maritime highway.
“Filipinos are predictable when making noise etc., but would they be ready for a conflict?” asks Zhou Bo, former colonel in the People’s Liberation Army and now retired senior colonel. “I don’t think so.”
“Do they really think that USA will help them out if there is any disagreement?’ he continued in this argument before he added.” I have my doubts whether; United States would want such confrontations between it and china in South China Sea over Philippines.”.
Sierra Madre
As far back as 2013 the navy deliberately grounded the Sierra Madre on Second Thomas Shoal so as to maintain its presence there; however it was later taken over by another generation of ships from China armed with water cannons which aimed blasts at their Filipino counterparts trying keep troops there supplied. Lately though, arguments about Manila’s alleged attempts at repairing its rust-eaten hulk have arisen following condemnations by Beijing stating clearly that it would not allow such an undertaking.
A former member of Philippine Navy confirmed today that slight repairs were made before on the rusting derelict including replacement of steel plates, electrical works and paint application.
Following this incident last week, the Filipino nation has had some soul-searching. Philippine Navy retired Rear Admiral Rommel Ong stated that his government strategy is inconsistent and recent events have created disunity among its soldiers.
Ong cautioned in his Monday’s essay published at Rappler that “military could lose its credibility with public.”
Similarly others are saying China is testing waters through each incident, which implies how far hay can go to gain dominance in this region.
“Beijing’s confident DC will make no substantive response to PRC aggression,” said Schuster, a former operations director with China acronymizing US Pacific Command’s Joint Intel Center. “Expect more violence in the months ahead.”
