Russian reliance on China now could even mean that if Beijing wanted, it could end the Ukrainian war, according to Finnish President Alexander Stubb.
“Russia is so dependent on China right now,” Stubb, 56, said in an interview in Helsinki Tuesday. “One phone call from President Xi Jinping would solve this crisis.”
According to Stubb there is a growing frustration among Ukraine’s allies about China’s perceived support for Russia’s war effort. They claim that Moscow has provided them with technologies and spare parts for weapon systems and enabled them to bypass international trade restrictions.
“If he were to say, ‘Time to start negotiating peace,’ Russia would be forced to do that,” Stubb said. “They would have no other choice.”
The Chinese Foreign Ministry didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment on Tuesday evening — outside of regular working hours.
Xi has been trying hard not to take sides in discussions over the conflict, stressing his country’s criticism of Russian bombardments on civilians as well as threats by Moscow about using atomic weapons. It also insists that any sanctions against countries are acceptable only if they are backed by the United Nations but generally does not support economic measures imposed by other nations and believes US and its allies were responsible for supplying arms into Ukraine which precipitated the hostilities.
Last year, 28% of Russia’s total trade was with China compared with 19% in 2021 according to Bloomberg compiled statistics while the European Union saw its share fall from 36% in that period to 17%.
On May 16th Xi hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin at talks held in Beijing where he called for an international conference involving both Kiev and Moscow aimed at resolving “the Ukraine issue”.
“I stand ready, together with you (Putin), constantly promoting the development of Sino-Russian bilateral relations,” Xia said.
Xi informed reporters they planed meeting Putin during their stay In Kazakhstan which begins Wednesday when they arrive at Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan.
The 5.5 million nation’s new head of state took office on March 2018 after previously serving as prime minister, finance minister and foreign minister. His predecessor Sauli Niinisto reached a constitutional term limit after 12 years in power.
Speaking at the gilded 19th century presidential palace — previously a residence of the Russian czar when Finland was part of his empire — Stubb said that China would stand to benefit from ending Putin’s “aggressive and colonial war” in Ukraine.
“It needs to protect the international rules which are linked to territorial integrity and sovereignty,” he said. “That is the right thing to do. And that would also show leadership from China.”
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who is known for being the European Union’s biggest ally with Russia, has announced today that he had asked President Zelenski to negotiate a cease-fire with Moscow but Finnish president does not agree.
Stubb said “It is not even up for discussion we push for a ceasefire now, the peace talks have to be genuine.” Russia only understands power. Thus, the faster we help Ukraine now, the sooner will time in which the war will be ended.
He also advised that Europe should invoke more support to Ukraine while at the same time building its own capability of defense in traditional military as well as against hybrid warfare of Russia. Some material aid including financial support and some political backing such as strengthening its course towards EU and NATO membership are what Stubb says Ukraine needs.
According to him, Europe should shift into “war economy” by pooling orders on ammunition and weapons because long-term planning would give its defence industry a perspective. In addition to state funding, Stubb called for European Investment Bank where he was previously vice president to go beyond red lines and become “bullish” on financing military industry.
Additionally however, another thing Europe needs do is create handbook on how hybrid attacks can be countered; the President opined. This would include systems recovery plans after being attacked but also rationalizing communications in order to present united front against Kremlin.
Finnish experiences over the past few months include cyber-attacks, GPS jamming, violations of airspace as well as weaponized immigration among others related to Russian hybrid warfare just like most other eastern flank countries of Nato.
“What Russia tries to do with hybrid attacks is get us to overreact or react differently,” Stubb said adding that attributing hybrid operations can also help put an end to them.
“If you deny it or keep it under the radar then I think Russia will just continue doing it.”
Finland has more than 800 miles of border with half facing off Nato’s main adversary, having co-existed with Russians rather uneasily throughout history.
After a century plus when it used to be a Grand Duchy of Russian Empire and therefore gained independence in 1917, Finns waged two wars with the Soviet Union during which they had to cede parts of their territory in 1944. In order to survive through Cold War — by necessity though not by any will – Finlandisation policy was adopted whereby Moscow-led neutrality remained in place while national sovereignty was preserved.
In 1995, immediately after the collapse of the USSR, this Nordic country sought for inclusion into EU similar like Sweden. Until Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Finnish policymakers rarely spoke publicly about Russia as its main military threat. In April 2023 Finland joined NATO.
The Nordic state has always been on its toes for survival. It can mobilize up to 280,000 troops during a war and has one of Europes strongest artillery units.
“Nowadays Finland is geopolitically speaking and geostrategically among the most important countries in Europe because our border with Russia has just doubled in size,” said Stubb. “Many people rely on us.”
