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As the United States inches closer to its 2024 general election, the concept of the “Blue Wall” is becoming a central focus in the fight between the Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, and the Republican contender, former President Donald Trump.
Both campaigns have poured resources into these pivotal states, given their critical role in determining who will secure the presidency.
What is the Blue Wall?
The “Blue Wall” refers to a cluster of states that consistently voted for the Democratic presidential candidate from 1992 through 2012. However, this long-standing trend was disrupted in 2016 when Trump managed to flip three key states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
These states, with a combined total of 44 electoral votes, were instrumental in Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton in the 2016 elections, as he won 306 electoral college votes despite losing the national popular vote by nearly 2.9 million.
In 2020, President Joe Biden managed to rebuild the Blue Wall, winning back these states and securing an electoral vote count of 306, the same margin Trump had achieved four years earlier. Biden’s national popular vote lead extended to over 7 million, but the Blue Wall states remained hotly contested battlegrounds.
Now, in 2024, these states are once again at the heart of the electoral struggle.
Importance of Electoral College Votes
To win the presidency, a candidate needs at least 270 of the 538 available electoral college votes. Each state is allocated a certain number of votes based on its congressional representation, with all but two states following a winner-takes-all system.
While both parties have strongholds, Democrats rely on the 18 states, plus Washington, DC, that have consistently supported them, amounting to 238 electoral votes.
Republicans, on the other hand, hold a solid base of 218 votes from the South and interior states, though they tend to be less populated and carry fewer electoral votes.
Pennsylvania
This state has 19 Electoral Votes.
Historically, a Republican hadn’t won Pennsylvania since 1988 before Trump’s victory in 2016. Biden reclaimed the state in 2020, beating Trump 50 per cent to 48.8 per cent.
Michigan
This battleground state has 15 Electoral Votes.
Like Pennsylvania, Michigan hadn’t gone red since 1988 until Trump’s narrow win in 2016. Biden flipped it back in 2020, securing 50.6 per cent of the vote to Trump’s 47.8 per cent.
Wisconsin
This key state has 10 Electoral Votes.
Before Trump’s victory in 2016, no Republican had won Wisconsin since 1984. Biden recaptured the state in 2020, narrowly defeating Trump 49.6 per cent to 48.9 per cent.
Stakes in 2024
As per USA Today, polls suggest the Blue Wall states are once again too close to call. If Trump manages to breach this wall like he did in 2016, he stands a strong chance of winning the presidency.
Conversely, if Harris can hold these states for the Democrats, her path to victory becomes much clearer.
As Election Day approaches, the eyes of the nation—and the world—will be on Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the blue wall trio that could tip the scales in one of the most closely contested elections in recent history.
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